The Australian Bureau of Statistics has just released March 2023 population figures for Australia. Australia’s total population has reached 26.5 million, growing 2.2% over the 12-month period — 81% of which came from migration.

What we mean by migration below /migration includes temporary visas

Here, “migration” here refers to people who settle in Australia for 12 months or more — this includes not only permanent residents, but — in far greater numbers — international students, recent graduates, working holiday makers and holders of all kinds of temporary visas.

It is important to be clear on this: the “migrants” referred to below are not only those who have obtained permanent residency (PR).

Overseas migration /a powerful comeback

Over 12 months, 681,000 migrants arrived in Australia — double the figure for the same period in 2022. At the same time, 226,600 people left Australia, which means net overseas migration was 454,400 people.

VIC and QLD populations /steadily catching up to NSW

Over the same period, overall population growth by state is shown below. Beyond the increase contributed by overseas migration, these figures also include natural increase and interstate migration (for example, moving from NSW to QLD)

– The largest increase by number was in Victoria, up by 161,700 people

– The largest increase by rate was in Western Australia, at 2.8%; the smallest was Tasmania, at 0.4%

–Queensland did well on both rate and number without topping either — up by 124,200 people (third by number) and 2.3% (second by rate), with people continuing to stream in.

–New South Wales also added 156,300 people, but because its base is already so large, its growth rate was below 1.9%. The reason Victoria can keep overtaking NSW in population growth is mainly that too many people are moving from NSW to other regions.

Overseas migrants pour in /two states stay red-hot

Looking purely at the population growth contributed by net overseas migration, we can see that

–NSW and VIC are still in a league of their own

–QLD and WA sit together in the second tier, with net inflows of between 50,000 and 100,000

–South Australia recorded 25,000

–the remaining three regions each had fewer than 10,000

Swinging wide open

is never the norm

The ABS specifically noted that the high inflow and low outflow are a catch-up effect following the pandemic border closures.

It is fair to say that the large return of overseas migrants up to early this year was driven by a series of policies the Australian Government used to encourage arrivals after the pandemic, with the surge concentrated from the middle to the end of last year, stimulating both permanent and temporary visas at once.

The data has more than demonstrated the effect — it’s just that the effect may have exceeded the Government’s own expectations and control, even leaving some after-effects. So this financial year we can clearly see the Government starting to tighten policy: on the temporary side, the “winding-up” of the subclass 408 COVID stream is a clear signal, while on the permanent side, state nomination quotas have been temporarily “sacrificed” to clear the visa backlog.

The Labor Government has been too short-sighted and lacking in overall planning: a wide opening is immediately followed by a sharp closing. Neither swinging wide open nor slamming shut is the norm; we hope things return to normal from the next financial year so applicants no longer have to ride the rollercoaster.

Past articles worth revisiting

The Department launches skills-assessment reform! VIC’s 190 policy stays in place and remains open!

Aged-care and disability-care workers from China have a chance to migrate to Australia!

VIC’s 190 policy and list stay unchanged — offshore applicants can still apply! Now open!

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Recommended in 2023

Australia’s net overseas migration tops 454,400 — driving 81% of population growth! NSW and VIC each gain over 100,000, QLD over 70,000!

The Department launches skills-assessment reform! VIC’s 190 policy stays in place and remains open!

Aged-care and disability-care workers from China have a chance to migrate to Australia!

VIC’s 190 policy and list stay unchanged — offshore applicants can still apply! Now open!

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