I have just seen a set of backlog data for 189/190/491/186 applications, with each category split between onshore and offshore cases. The data is as at 21 May 2026.
Core policy for the 2026–27 financial year: onshore applicants prioritised for migration visa grants
The new financial year explicitly prioritises onshore visa grants. This year’s total allocation is 185,000, of which 129,590 is prioritised for onshore applicants and 55,110 for offshore applicants, although the offshore portion will focus heavily on highly skilled applicants.
Looking at actual grants so far this financial year, the overwhelming majority have been onshore, with offshore grants barely visible.
Many offshore applicants are worried that they may have to wait two or three years for a grant.
Onshore and offshore backlogs for four major skilled migration visas and the processing outlook
Using this data, today we will examine how the 189/190/491 and 186 backlogs may progress if onshore cases are prioritised, in light of this financial year’s allocations.
Subclass 186 employer-sponsored visa: 85% of the backlog is onshore, with longer processing times for offshore applicants in non-shortage industries
As at 21 May 2026, there were 73,313 onshore applications, including primary and secondary applicants, and 13,929 offshore applications, for a total of 87,242 applications. Onshore cases accounted for as much as 85%, while offshore cases accounted for only 15%.
This year’s Subclass 186 allocation is 58,040. Compared with the backlog of 87,000, most of the onshore Subclass 186 backlog will probably be cleared in the new financial year, while applicants in priority occupations should be able to secure PR more quickly.
Although the offshore backlog of 13,000 is not large, the tighter overall allocation for offshore applicants and the emphasis on highly skilled offshore applicants mean that processing times for those in non-shortage industries may lengthen.
Subclass 189 Skilled Independent visa: overall backlog at a healthy level, with relatively low processing pressure onshore and offshore
As at 30 April 2026, only 6k applications remained in the backlog: 4.4k onshore and 1.6k offshore.
This year’s allocation has increased to 21,090 and the backlog is in good shape. I believe this is also why the Subclass 189 programme was able to hold a large invitation round in June. Even after adding the invitations from the June round, the overall backlog remains very healthy, so grant processing should still be very fast. Applications in the pool should all receive grants during this financial year. With fewer than 2k offshore applications in the backlog, the impact should not be too significant either. Recently, many applications lodged late last year and in June have continued to receive grants.
Subclass 190 Skilled Nominated visa: onshore backlog clearance accelerates, with faster grants for newly lodged applications
As at 30 April 2026, the total backlog was 21,901, comprising 14,807 onshore and 7,094 offshore applications. This year’s allocation is 35,500.
The onshore-to-offshore ratio is roughly 2:1. At the current pace of prioritising onshore cases, the onshore backlog should also be cleared quickly. The pace of onshore Subclass 190 grants in the new financial year has indeed accelerated from what we have seen so far, with many applications lodged early this year already approved within a few months.
Subclass 491 regional state nomination: offshore cases account for nearly 40% of the backlog, significantly increasing pressure on offshore applicants
As at 30 April 2026, the total backlog was 20,525: 12,314 onshore and 8,211 offshore.
Onshore Subclass 491 processing is indeed accelerating at the same time, and some NSW Subclass 491 applications lodged in March have recently been granted.
Unlike Subclass 190, however, offshore applications account for nearly 40% of the Subclass 491 backlog, representing a sizeable base.
Prioritising onshore cases and favouring highly skilled offshore applicants also means that offshore Subclass 491 applicants in non-priority occupations may face longer waits.
Outlook for offshore skilled migration under the broad onshore-priority policy
Overall, under this year’s broad policy of prioritising onshore applicants, offshore processing will indeed be slower. However, I do not believe that no offshore applications will be granted. I believe there will be movement in both skilled and family migration as the financial year progresses. Since the offshore share is relatively small, once processing begins to move, it should move relatively quickly.
Separately, onshore Subclass 864 parent migration applications lodged as far back as October 2019 have received requests for further information, while there has still been no movement on Subclass 143.
