Over the past couple of days, I have seen that Canada has suspended new parent migration applications (hero image), and some people have asked me: will Australia follow suit?
Let us first look at Canada’s model.
Canada’s annual parent migration quota is around 15,000 (nearly twice Australia’s). It uses a system in which people first register their interest and are then invited by the government, much like a ballot. A formal visa application can be lodged only after an invitation is issued.
The previous waiting period was around 3 years, and it was even longer in Quebec.
However, from 15 July, Canada suspended new parent migration applications. It no longer accepts new expressions of interest or issues new invitations to lodge an application. It has not announced when the programme will reopen.
Applications that have already been invited and lodged will continue to be processed. The current backlog in the pool is probably at least 50,000+. The official reason given by Canada is that demand exceeds supply, so the programme has been paused.
Canada has halted parent migration applications. Will Australia follow suit? The key conclusion
Many people who saw this news are very worried that Australia may follow suit, even though Australia’s problem of a large backlog against a limited quota appears more serious.
My view is that Australia is unlikely to shut the programme down outright. The main reason is the difference between the two parent migration application systems.
Australia vs Canada: a full comparison of parent migration
Canada uses an Expression of Interest (EOI) system. A formal visa application cannot be lodged before an invitation is received, similar to Australia’s skilled migration system. There is also no application fee before an invitation; the visa fee is payable only after an invitation is received. This makes closing the EOI system relatively easy.
Australia’s current parent migration system, by contrast, involves lodging a visa application directly and joining the queue, with applicants paying a substantial visa fee from the outset. If the programme were closed across the board, I believe this could only mean suspending new applications while continuing to process existing ones (Canada is also continuing to process the visa applications already in its pool). Otherwise, imagine the backlash if, as with something like an investor visa, you were told to withdraw your application in exchange for a refund. After all, the sponsor is at least a PR holder or citizen.
Practical planning advice for Australian parent migration applicants
Those who have not yet lodged an application do not need to be overly anxious. What you can do is place your parents in the queue as early as possible—even if you first lodge a Subclass 103 application to secure a place.
Compared with Canada, the mismatch between demand and supply in Australian parent migration is actually more serious, and both its backlog and waiting periods far exceed Canada’s. Canada’s visa fee is only C$1260 per person, with no contribution payment.
In Australia, even with the A$43600 contribution payment, the overall waiting period for the Subclass 143/864 categories already exceeds 10 years. Compared with Canada’s waiting period of more than 3 years, Australia’s problem is actually more severe, yet no implemented solution has emerged.
In these circumstances, people who are already in the pool do not need to be overly anxious. Even if an extreme policy closes new applications in the future, existing applications will probably remain in the pool and continue through the normal queue and assessment process.
P.S. Over the past week, all the requests for further information I have received have still been for Subclass 864 applications. I have not yet seen any new requests for further information for Subclass 143 applications. I will share further news when it becomes available. Have a great weekend.
