Australia’s Border Won’t Open Until 2024?? NO! Here’s What Everyone’s Actually Saying! 190/189/491 Processing Wait-Time Data — Updated!

That 2024 figureactually comes from a series of analyses by one of the Big Four accounting firms,Deloitte,in its Quarterly Business Outlook Report, on Australia’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Of course,economic recovery is closely tied to whether — and how far — the international border reopens.

The report points out that because ofthe confusion and slow pace of the Morrison Government’s current vaccine rollout, the international border is expected to reopen only gradually.At the same time, Deloitte economist Chris Richardson expects thatfor some time yet, arrivals will still need to undergo some form of quarantine(though not necessarily always 14 days of mandatory hotel quarantine).

As a result,international travel in 2022, whether inbound or outbound, will still be at a relatively low level,and it won’t return to pre-pandemic normal levels until 2024.

So it isn’t that the border only “opens” in 2024 — rather, 2024 is when things are expected to “fully recover”.

In fact,the Secretary of the Department of Health (formerly the Commonwealth Chief Health Officer) had earlier said he hoped the border could reopen in 2022.

Health expertshave repeatedly said thatthe world is unlikely to eradicate the virus the way Australia and New Zealand had hoped — it will circulate and spread globally like influenza.

Representingemployers,the head of the Ai Group, Innes Willox, believesthat vaccines are the breakthrough that will bring skilled migrants, tourists and international students back.While vaccines may be an “imperfect solution” to the pandemic, they remainthe “best hope” of keeping the Australian economy “moving and connected”.

“Without an effective vaccination plan,we’ll have no chance of reopening the national border to skilled migrants, students and tourists, and the states will keep taking the lazy option of unnecessarily closing their borders to cover for the shortcomings in their tracing and tracking systems. Without a good plan, we could be stuck inside a gilded cage for years to come.”

The tourism industryalso believes a successful national vaccination program is the core foundation for reopening Australia’s international border to more countries and traveller groups beyond New Zealand.

Qantashas already saidthat delays in Australia’s vaccine rollout won’t, at this stage, change its timetable for resuming international flights, which remains this October.A Qantas spokesperson said: “The government hasn’t yet updated its timetable for effectively completing the vaccine rollout, and at this stage there’s no change to our planned resumption of international flights. We’ll continue our dialogue with the government.”

The Health Ministersaid that whether to abandon the zero-tolerance approach to the virus will need to be a joint decision by the Prime Minister, Chief Ministers and Premiers. Vaccination is one of the deciding factors in reopening the border, but it isn’t the only one, and it’s no guarantee on its own.

After the EU restricted vaccine exports,Australia’s Trade Minister,Dan Tehan, will travel to Germany, France and Brussels on Thursday for face-to-face talks with ministerial-level officials, on the very issue of the EU’s vaccine export restrictions.

According to data obtained by migration expert Abul Rizvi, the number of people holdingan Australian bridging visasurged from 191,529 at the end of December 2019 to312,216 in February 2021,some waiting on appeal outcomes, but most simply waiting and waiting for their visa to be granted — and that’s without even counting people offshore who don’t hold a bridging visa but are likewise waiting for a grant.

*Includes state government and family-sponsored categories, and both primary and secondary applicants

there are 5,022 applications backlogged awaiting processing — the vast majority offshore, at 4,337, with 685 waiting onshore.

Most of those waiting offshore have been waiting 6-24 months, which is already more than half a year,and of the 4,841 applications that have waited more than six months, 4,192 have applicants currently offshore.

Among the applications granted in February 2021,

75% waited 514 days or less

90% waited 696 days or less

For 489 TR converting to 887 PR,

2,332 applications awaiting a grant have a waiting period of 6-24 months.

*Includes the points-tested stream and the New Zealand stream, and both primary and secondary applicants

there are 10,302 applications with waiting times of 6-24 months,of which 7,823 are waiting onshore and 2,479 are waiting offshore.

189 – points-tested stream only

(latest data as at 15 March 2021, including both primary and secondary applicants)

The number of grants in February and March this year has clearly improved.

The backlog for the 189 points-tested stream alone totals 4,476,with 2,173 onshore and 2,303 offshore.

While we’re at it, let’s look at the New Zealand stream…

there are 10,584 applications with waiting times of 6-24 months,of which 5,284 are waiting onshore and 5,300 are waiting offshore.

there are 6,014 applications with waiting times of 6-24 months,of which 2,995 are waiting onshore and 3,019 are waiting offshore.

processing has continued steadily, with granted applications typically waiting 3-4 months.

Accounting/ICT and other occupations have recently been approved! Still scrambling to make up points for 189/190/491? Still waiting anxiously for an invitation? Consider switching to this Plan A!