“The Australian government is clearly planning to restore high migration numbers!” “We need a large-scale, selective migration programme more urgently than any other country!”

Yesterday, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada announced a new “Temporary public policy” offering 90,000 places, split between 40,000 places for international students, 20,000 for healthcare workers, and 30,000 for essential workers in short supply.

Applications open for online submission from 6 May 2021, on a first-come, first-served basis.

The main requirements for the international student category — which takes up the largest share of places — are broadly as follows:

*The above is a general outline of the requirements, not the full list of details.

In February, the government carried out a serious and urgent consultation on skilled migration. The number of official bodies, industry groups and individuals who submitted feedback was among the highest in recent years, and an initial summary report has now been released. Everyone’s ideas centred on:
— granting skilled migrants a special exemption to enter the country
— expanding the PMSOL list, which currently covers only 18 occupations
— prioritising onshore international students for migration while overseas arrivals remain blocked
— prioritising employer sponsorship and lowering some threshold requirements

Read more here: More shortage occupations added, faster grant processing, lower employer-sponsorship thresholds, onshore applicants prioritised! Home Affairs and other stakeholders weigh in on post-pandemic skilled migration!

In early March, the Prime Minister publicly said Australia needs migrants, stating that having been affected in this way (by the pandemic), the government must remain open-minded about the migration programme. Australia must reassess the role temporary visa holders play in meeting our economy’s labour needs, because Australians cannot fill these jobs.

Agriculture, nursing and aged care are among the sectors the Prime Minister has already flagged for priority support.

Read more here: The Prime Minister publicly backs migration! “The government must remain open-minded! Many roles urgently need temporary migrants to fill them!”

In mid-March, the Immigration Minister said he too hopes migrants and international students can come back as soon as possible. Once migration resumes, supporting skilled migrants returning to Australia to fill critical skills shortages, and welcoming back international students, could become a government priority. He said: “It looks like the global competition is over talent, skills, family and business.”

“We need to let people in as soon as possible and open the border to these regions, because they’ll act as an employment multiplier. They’ll be a driver of economic growth, and we need that growth.”

Read more here: Australia’s Immigration Minister: bring migrants back as soon as possible! Could the post-pandemic migration programme look very different? 189/190/491 visa processing-speed update for February!

Also, from February, grants for the 189 and 190 visas that so many people have been watching closely also started to gradually resume — though mainly concentrated in shortage occupations and the popular accounting, engineering and ICT fields, and mostly for onshore applicants. Most states are also steadily issuing state-nomination invitations.

Greg Sheridan — a well-known editor and columnist at The Australian, once named one of Australia’s most influential national-security commentators — wrote an analysis piece today: assuming vaccination is reasonably, if not completely, successful, the pandemic’s long-term impact on Australia’s future will fall mainly across five key areas: migration, debt, interest rates, social equity and inflation.

Let’s get straight to the point — migration

It’s a tragedy that the permanent migration programme has been cut so severely. While this was necessary while the border was closed, he believes no country in the world needs a large-scale, selective migration programme more urgently than Australia does.

Australia needs migration for economic, social and security reasons alike.

The economic benefits are obvious — it delivers economic gains, lifts productivity and brings in capital, and migration also keeps Australia’s population younger. A younger Australia is a better Australia in every respect.

Socially, it’s mainly about making up for the low birth rate — migration brings vitality.

Migration is also urgently needed for security reasons. Australia’s population is around 26 million, but it’s spread very unevenly — vast tracts of land have hardly anyone in them, while a small patch of land is packed with people. Without large-scale migration, the country could quickly grow old and decline. A bigger Australia has a stronger economy, and stronger defence too.

Greg Sheridan believes permanent migration should be restored first

What he hopes Australia restores, or restores first, is permanent migration (specifically, offshore skilled migration), because this group’s commitment to Australia is far more solid. “Before coming to Australia they need to be vaccinated, get tested on arrival, and undergo two weeks of quarantine after that. After that, they typically have no need — or no desire — to leave Australia for at least the next few years; permanent migrants have a commitment to Australia similar to that of citizens, and help build a society.

He also took a dig at how the pathway from international study to permanent residency isn’t very transparent and involves a winding process, unlike the straightforwardness of direct skilled migration.

That said, he also expects that, since the border can only reopen slowly, Australia will seek the return of tourists and international students for the sake of short-term mobility and benefits.

Another well-known columnist at The Australian, Judith Sloan, also argued this week that the Australian government is planning a return to a high migration numbers programme. Judith Sloan is also an economist who has held several government positions, including Commissioner of the Productivity Commission, Commissioner of the Australian Fair Pay Commission, and Deputy Chair of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

One article of hers that stuck in our editor’s memory was from a Federal Budget announcement two or three years ago — at the time, neither the Prime Minister nor the ministers had clearly stated the new financial year’s PR quota, and Judith Sloan was the first to publish, that same night, confirming the PR quota would hold steady for the next financial year. The government’s official announcement later confirmed she was right.

Signs point to Australia planning a return to a high-migration programme

As we start returning to a more normal world, will “Big Australia” win out? It’s a question worth asking. While the slowdown in population growth that comes with a closed international border has been welcomed by most Australians, the signs suggest the Federal Government intends to restore migration-driven population growth as soon as possible.

She cited the Federal Government’s recently released Population Statement (and took a dig, in passing, at how dreadful the report looks…), saying “migration will be a key part of Australia’s economic and health recovery from the pandemic. The government will maximise the economic benefits of the migration programme by addressing skills shortages, attracting highly skilled migrants for niche industries, increasing investment to support economic recovery, and supporting migration to regional areas.”

Although she sharply noted that the report’s analysis isn’t especially reliable, she said it’s worth studying because it sets out assumptions for future net overseas migration — just a few years from now, Treasury expects net overseas migration to return to pre-pandemic levels, averaging around 240,000 people a year.

She sees this as one of the government’s signals.

Support for restoring migration is nearly one-sided

Another signal is the skilled migration inquiry report from the Joint Standing Committee on Migration, which gives further insight into the government’s thinking on future migrant intake.

As mentioned above, most submissions recommended lowering thresholds and relaxing conditions. Julian Leeser, the committee chair responsible for the report, largely echoed this same stance: “We need to bring back skilled migration to fill necessary gaps and help create more jobs for Australians.”

Both of these are fairly well-known commentators and analysts, and compared with employers and industry representatives, their positions tend to be more neutral. Even though they don’t necessarily agree with the government’s views and approach, and their tone isn’t always friendly, both of them, drawing on various signs and realities, expect Australia to need — or to return to supporting — a larger-scale migration programme.

In truth, Australia is recovering step by step, sending out goodwill signals step by step, but for everyone who’s been waiting so long, watching these “shuffles” unfold step by step obviously doesn’t feel like enough — everyone is anxiously waiting.

With Canada’s wave after wave of “offensives”, Australia surely can’t stay so calm watching on — even if Morrison himself can keep his cool, universities, the education sector, employers and other stakeholders can’t.

Keep the pressure up, and speed up urgent action!

Oh, and by the way — the Federal Budget for the next financial year is scheduled for release in May. Not long now.