The 2023–24 financial year state nomination quotas for every state have just been released, and the state governments have now received their new official allocations! After the earlier signals out of WA and Canberra, few of us were still expecting a pleasant surprise.

The federal government also noted that this is due to an excessive backlog of visa applications: as at 30 June 2023, the combined Subclass 189 + 190 + 491 backlog exceeded 120,000 applications, of which theSubclass 190 and 491 backlog alone will consume all of this year’s grant allocation plus roughly half of next financial year’s before it is cleared.189is in slightly better shape, but this year’s allocation will still be almost entirely used up.

An average cut of 70% across every state

NSW: Subclass 190 down 70.9%, with just 2,650 places; Subclass 491 down 75.68%, leaving 1,500 places

VIC: Subclass 190 down 79%, with only 2,700 places left; Subclass 491 down 70%, leaving 600 places

Other states: See the chart for the full picture. The smallest cut is the Northern Territory’s Subclass 190, down 58.33% — but only because its starting base was small.

Some analysis

WA is still lobbying — will it make any difference?

We certainly hope it will, but even if adjustments or top-ups follow, the numbers won’t be large. The visa backlog acts as a brake — grant allocations can’t be increased without limit, and the government places great weight on its track record in clearing the backlog. It’s a vicious circle.

Will Subclass 189 fare any better?

The Subclass 189 backlog is better than that of Subclass 190 and 491, but this year’s allocation will still be more or less exhausted by it. Subclass 189 is regulated federally and is aimed mainly at directly filling skills shortages. Against a backdrop of rising unemployment in Australia and a large influx of temporary-visa holders, Subclass 189 will still issue invitations, but it will be hard for it to do better than last year.

History is simply repeating itself

During and before the pandemic, the combined state-nomination allocation for Subclass 491 + 190 was around 30,000–40,000 places. Both this year’s 16,000 and last financial year’s 60,000+ are well outside the norm.

Last year far too many were issued — even the state governments hadn’t expected such generous allocations. The labour shortage onshore in Australia is real too; it was rather like a starving person eating anything in reach and then overeating. This financial year the “debt” has to be repaid — and again that’s on the federal government.

Will the state governments change their policies?

That’s hard to say. Many states already overhauled their policies once last year, swinging from moderately difficult to easy, so it remains to be seen whether they’ll tinker again.

If they leave things as they are, the reality is that many will apply but very few will actually be invited. If they do change the policies, many people will simply be shut out.

Those affected first are purely offshore applicants, then onshore applicants who graduated outside the nominating state. Local graduates applying for nomination in their own state are a little better placed, as they are the core constituency for state nomination.

Either way, be ready for a points arms race.

Business and investor migration allocations are zero in every state.….this financial year it’s very likely that employer sponsorship will be the only standout left — in particular, Subclass 482 has no quota cap at all. If you have at least 1.5 years of work experience, come and book a skills-assessment consultation and explore this Plan B!

Employer sponsorshipFor more details, see: No more waiting year after year for quotas to open, no points race, low English requirements, and fast processing for every occupation — now is the time to look into this migration pathway!

We’ve set up a [2023–24 Quota Discussion Group] with both news and analysis. If you’re interested, add our consultant and note [Quota] to request to join!

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