I. South Australia resumes, issues new state-nomination invitations

The first state-nomination round of 2026 came from South Australia,with a new round of invitations issued early this week — 344 pre-invitations in total, capturing 200+ Subclass 190 and 100+ Subclass 491 candidates.Across all state-nomination programs, this is the first 2026 round and SA’s second round of FY25-26. South Australia was the last state to publish its policy this year, but arriving late to the party is still better than not arriving at all.

Because SA treats related work experience as qualifying when the first two digits of the ANZSCO code match, their official round report also groups statistics by the first two digits. Overall, the January round differs little from December’s:Health occupations continue to dominate, mostly under Subclass 190, and the overwhelming majority are in-state applicants. South Australia is now running one round per month, with the next round expected in early February.Full data below:

This round one of our clients received an invitation as a motor mechanic — even in fiercely competitive occupations like commercial cook and accountant, there are still opportunities to be had.

II. Tasmania follows with Orange Plus invitations this round

Tasmania has also resumed, issuing new ROI invitations on Tuesday as scheduled and quickly publishing the official round report.Volumes this round were slightly below previous rounds: 36 Subclass 190 and 26 Subclass 491 invitations, with minimum scores of 71 for 190 and 42 for 491 — all Orange Plus candidates.

The pool currently holds 423 Subclass 190 and 217 Subclass 491 ROIs. Remaining nomination quota stands at 813 for 190 and 535 for 491. More than 350 nomination applications are currently backlogged.

The key factor in a Tasmanian invitation is having a job on the ground. The bar is not low, but the upside is low competition and stable policy — so if you secure a Tasmanian job, or are willing to settle there for a few years, your invitation odds remain strong.

III. FY24-25 Migration Program Report: Mainland China tops family migration

The FY24-25 Migration Program Report on the Department of Home Affairs website has finally been released, if belatedly. It summarises the outcomes for every capped migration category in the past financial year. We’ve extracted the key points as follows:

1、Mainland China’s family migration overtook skilled migration,and Indian skilled migration continues to lead by a wide margin.India received over 43,000 skilled migration visas (including primary and secondary applicants), while Mainland China received nearly 11,000 family migration visas and 9,400 skilled migration visas.

2、Only Subclass 491 has more offshore applicants than onshore — the full regional category granted close to 20,000 visas onshore and offshore combined, with under 14,000 onshore. Apart from special pathways like the GTI, every skilled category grants far more onshore than offshore.

3、The top five skilled occupation groups are Nursing, IT (2613), Commercial Cook, Accounting (2211) and Civil Engineering (2332).

4、Subclass 186 employer-sponsored backlog grew substantially: combined TRT + DElodgements exceeded 65,000,and by 30 June 2025 the Subclass 186 backlog had climbed past 58,000 — up 20,000 year on year.

5、Subclass 188 investor visas: withdrawals outnumber grants，As at 30 June 2025,there were still 14,549 applications backlogged — down by nearly 5,000. The withdrawal rate exceeded the grant rate, with most applicants choosing to withdraw.

We pulled much of the Subclass 189/190/491 data via FOI ahead of time. Full report data and analysis here:Skilled / Investor / Partner Migration Official Grant Data | Mainland China Family Migration Tops Skilled Category, Top Five Skilled Occupations Revealed!

IV. Australian net overseas migration finally drops, driving slower population growth

Over the past year or two the Labor government has rolled outmultiple policies restricting temporary visas, including the first-ever cap on new international student enrolments, a ban on switching from Subclass 485/600 and similar temporary visas to student visas onshore, and stricter processing for VET student visas —all aimed at reducing the total population by shrinking net overseas migration.

As we’ve noted many times,Net Overseas Migration (NOM) covers visa holders able to stay in Australia for at least 12 months,and because permanent residency categories are almost all capped, their numbers are actually relatively small —the bulk comes from uncapped temporary visas such as student visas and working holiday visas.

It takes time for these policies to take effect — and that time has finally arrived.

The 2025 population report forecasts that 2026 population growth will drop to 1.3%, down 0.2% year on year. The core driver is that overseas migrant arrivals are projected to fall while more migrants are expected to depart. NOM for 2026 is forecast at 260,000, returning to roughly half the 2023 level.

As the chart below shows, with several renewal pathways blocked over the past two years and no meaningful easing in migration policy,the drop in NOM is driven primarily by a steadily rising number of departures.

Boosted by both interstate migration and net overseas migration,Western Australia is forecast to have the fastest population growth of any state in 2026. Tasmania and South Australia are likely to be the slowest. New South Wales retains the No.1 population spot and, at the current pace, is projected to reach 9.6 million by 2035-36 — around 30% of Australia’s total population.

Coming back to applicants themselves: with policies targeting so many angles, the days of lodging any visa and getting it approved easily are long gone. Renewal strategy is now critical — you must weigh every risk factor holistically, especially if you have a PR plan in the pipeline. Don’t judge a temporary-visa renewal on the last year or two alone; take the long view. For a comprehensive case review and strategy consultation, please contact us.