Someone asked us today: Is Australia turning against migration again? Are the policies about to take a turn for the worse?

The question left us a little puzzled….

It turns out a news report claimed that most Australian voters think migration intake is too high.

Some readers who have only just started following us might react with: huh?

Anyone who has been keeping an eye on Australian migration for a while, on the other hand, probably thinks: ah, here we go again…

We completely understand the concern, so today we want to offer a few light thoughts on these Australian migration polls.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald (SMH), a poll conducted by research firm Resolve Strategic found that:

Question 1: Your view on migration numbers

– 59% think the current migration intake is too high

– 25% think it is about right

– only 3% think it is too low

Among them, Coalition supporters were more likely to say the intake is too high, at 70%; Labor supporters sat at 50%, below the average. Retirees recorded an even higher share saying it is too high, reaching 72%.

Another question gauged attitudes towards raising the TSMIT threshold to $70,000:

– 34% oppose raising it that high

– 38% are in favour

– 28% could not decide

Australian voters think there is too much migration — yet again?

A few light thoughts

Polls like this come around every other week, so there is no need to read too much into them. Here is why:

1. The sample size is small and not truly representative

These polls usually involve just a few thousand people — the one above, for instance, surveyed 1,610 respondents. Would you call that representative?

2. The questions are sometimesmisleading (and frankly, the people writing them may not fully understand the distinction either)

Take the question in the survey above: before the pandemic the PR (permanent residency) cap was 160,000; 2020–22 saw a sharp downturn, so this year the figure could reach 350,000–400,000, with another 320,000 expected next year. Some feel this adds pressure on housing, transport and so on, while others believe it helps ease labour shortages — what do you think?

This plainly conflates the 160,000 permanent residency cap with net overseas migration figures (most of which are temporary visa holders, such as student and working holiday visas).. If the PR cap really were 350,000–400,000, just imagine how thrilled everyone would be…

We think the Net Overseas Migration (NOM) figure is a better way to assess the knock-on effects of overseas arrivals coming to Australia. So we looked up 2018–19, a financial year entirely unaffected by the pandemic, and found thatNet Overseas Migration (NOM) still reached a positive 239,600 — a gap of about 79,000 from the figure used in the question…

3. The same opposition appears year after year, so such polls mean little

Many voters have no firmly committed party allegiance; they tend to look, ahead of an election, at whichever party’s promises sit more comfortably with them.

And while Australia votes its governments in,when it comes to decisions a government inevitably looks at the bigger picture — overall demand and the realities on the ground.

Pull out the historical data and you will see that, broadly speaking,almost every poll, year after year, says the intake is too high and attitudes are not very positive. Yet in reality this bears little relation to how the government adjusts its annual PR cap, or whether it welcomes temporary visas such as Subclass 500, 485, 482 and the working holiday visa (WHV).

Let us give you another example —

The Lowy Institute is one of Australia’s larger, well-known think tanks, and each year it runs an annual poll that includes a question on migration numbers.

2023 poll

53% said it should return to pre-pandemic levels

26% said it should be even lower than pre-pandemic

20% said more is needed

2022 poll

This was arguably the year of the most acute labour shortage

46% said it should return to pre-pandemic levels

33% said it should be even lower than pre-pandemic

21% said more is needed

2021 poll

The year the pandemic hit Australia’s population growth hardest

Only 9% saw low migration intake as the most serious threat or challenge to Australia’s economic growth over the next decade

In reality, however,

the government still lifted the caps it needed to lift, and still encouraged the pathways it needed to encourage — Subclass 408, 500, the WHV, employer-sponsored visas and the like.

So next time you see a poll calling for lower migration or opposing migration, take it in your stride — there is no need to dwell on it.Migration is, at its core, a matter of supply and demand, and Australia certainly has demand. That demand has an upper and a lower bound, rising and falling across different periods. Cut the flow off entirely and you get a “shortage”; let too many in at once and things “overheat”.For now, it appears the government has not struck that balance particularly well.

What applicants should really worry about is the others competing alongside you. Do what you need to do, and do it quickly — so you can catch the “good times” while also being well placed to out-compete everyone else.

To discuss your migration plan, add our consultant below.

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Australia’s Latest Poll: Voters Say Migration Numbers Are Too High Again? Is It Time to Panic? A Few Light Thoughts

The Lowy Institute is one of Australia’s larger, well-known think tanks, and each year it runs an annual poll that includes a question on migration numbers.

A 1-year early childhood GD accreditation course + skills assessment + migration — the most complete summary anywhere!

Can the self-employed apply for employer sponsorship? What about spouses? Or a company you have invested in? Which options suit you?

Overseas marketing, project management, finance, conference organisers and more are receiving stable, low-points Subclass 491 invitations in Canberra!

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