This Week in Migration

Migration Weekly

1. Subclass 190 + 189 + 491: a 125,000-visa backlog at the close of last financial year…

2. Parent-migration queue-time estimator updated — lodging now still means a 12-year-plus wait

3. The Department updates its visa processing-time guide — most categories speeding up

4. The first 491-to-191 grant — or is it? Over 100,000 Subclass 408s — are they being misused?

5. a week in review — grants, invitations, skills assessments and citizenship processing

1. Subclass 190 + 189 + 491: a 125,000-visa backlog at the close of last financial year…

There was still no update this week on the state-nomination allocations, but we did receive the popular skilled-visa application backlog as at the close of last financial year. The Subclass 190 and 491 backlogs are severe. In 2022–23:

189 granted 32,494 — 394 more than the allocation — leaving a backlog of 28,589 at year-end

190 granted 31,323 — 323 more than the allocation — leaving a backlog of 49,706 at year-end

491 granted 23,019 — 10,981 short of the allocation — leaving a backlog of 46,460 at year-end. Part of the remaining 10,000 places went to Subclass 494 and 489 grants, so the number ultimately wasted is estimated at a few thousand

On processing, the Department has largely done all it can within the limits of the allocations. But the large volume of invitations issued last financial year drove a sharp rise in new applications. In the end the three major categories still accumulated a backlog of 125,000. For both Subclass 190 and 491, this year’s grant allocations are not even enough to clear the existing backlog, while Subclass 189 will have fewer than 2,000 places left once the current backlog is cleared.

This will, to some degree, affect this financial year’s visa processing and invitation rounds

Impact 1: some applications will not be granted until after 1 July 2024. Subclass 190 and 491 applications lodged last financial year or earlier cannot all be processed within this financial year, so some will only be granted in the next financial year (after 1 July 2024). The Subclass 189 outlook is a little better, but because processing does not strictly follow lodgement date, it is not 100% certain that the 28,000-strong backlog will all be cleared this financial year

Impact 2: this financial year’s Subclass 190 and 491 allocations and invitation rounds may struggle to be more favourable than 2022–23. Because such a workload has built up, the odds of a “mega-round” issuing tens of thousands of invitations at once will fall. If invitations continue to be issued in large numbers this financial year regardless of the visa backlog, Impact 1 will worsen and more people will wait longer for their grants

For more analysis, see: Subclass 190 + 491 leave a “residual” backlog of nearly 100,000 visas from last financial year — the impact on this year’s grants and invitations! Subclass 189 actually issued 32,500; nearly 1,000 Subclass 191s already lodged!

Subclass 191 and 887 in the last financial year:

– Subclass 191 had a backlog of 920 applications at year-end, but not a single grant. This week the first apparent grant emerged — more on this below

–– The Subclass 887 application backlog is essentially cleared, having dropped sharply from 20,000 to 1,636 by 30 June; applications lodged now are granted quickly

This financial year’s state-nomination allocations should be known soon, and the Subclass 189/190/491 invitations will start shortly afterwards. The overall picture is less favourable than last financial year, so complete your skills assessment and sit your English test as soon as possible and lodge into the pool early. If you would like your case assessed and a plan mapped out, add our consultant below:

2. Parent-migration queue-time estimator updated — lodging now still means a 12-year-plus wait

This week we also obtained data on parent-migration applications

Contributory parent migration (Subclass 143 + 864) reached a total application backlog of around 83,000 by the end of May, with 23,559 new contributory parent-migration applications lodged last financial year, driven by more people being granted PR and then quickly lodging migration applications for their parents. At a rate of 6,800 grants a year for the contributory category, an application lodged now would take around 12 years to be reached. The queued (non-contributory) parent-migration backlog (Subclass 103 + 804) has reached 50,504; at 1,700 places a year, an application lodged now would take almost 30 years to be reached.

For applicants who have already lodged, we have also updated the queue-time estimator based on the new data. By the close of the 2023–24 financial year (30 June 2024), contributory parent migration is expected to have processed applications lodged up to June 2017

For the queued-category estimator and more analysis of parent-migration waiting times, see: Latest Subclass 143/103 parent-migration application backlog, plus the updated waiting-time estimator — here at last! With an overview of the various parent-related visas!

For parent-migration enquiries, add our consultant below:

3. The Department updates its visa processing-time guide — most categories speeding up

From the start of the financial year in early July, the Department opened grants for the new financial year across the board, so now, at the end of July, there is data to update the visa processing-time guide. A reminder as always: the Department’s figures include outliers and also lag behind, so they differ from the current reality and are only a limited guide.

Subclass 189 (points-tested)

50% within six months, 75% within six months

On the ground: the focus is on clearing visas lodged between October 2022 and February 2023, and many lodged after being invited last December are progressively being granted

Subclass 190 (state-nominated)

50% within 86 days, 75% within 4 months

On the ground: most grants are for applications lodged between late 2022 and early 2023, with those lodged mid-2022 or earlier also being cleared from time to time

Subclass 491 (state-nominated)

50% within 10 months, 75% within 14 months

On the ground: the most noticeable acceleration of the three major categories. Most current grants are for applications lodged between late 2022 and early 2023, and we have seen some lodged in late March already granted

Subclass 482 (still fast)

Subclass 482 nomination: 75% within 6 days

Subclass 482 short-term stream visa: 75% within 33 days

Subclass 482 medium-term stream visa: 75% within 35 days

Plus employer-sponsorship accreditation processing at 75% within 16 days

On the ground: already fast, Subclass 482 keeps accelerating — previously 35 days, now 33; previously 39 days, now within 35. Most applicants are still granted within three months. We have several clients who lodged the nomination in the morning, were approved that afternoon, and had the visa granted the following week…

Subclass 186 (employer-sponsored PR)

DE: 75% within 11 months

TRT 75% within 11 months

On the ground: the official guide is unchanged, but our recent Subclass 186 client data also shows it accelerating, currently processing applications from the second half of 2022 to early 2023. Subclass 186 DE is direct-to-PR; those with close to three years’ work experience can have their eligibility assessed

For more categories, see: Subclass 189/190/491/employer-sponsored processing waiting times [official] updated — most speeding up! The first Subclass 191 grant reportedly lodged in March this year?

Some of this week’s externally collected Subclass 189 and 491 grant data (our own internal data is shown further below)

Some of this week’s externally collected 190 grant data:

4. The first 491-to-191 grant — or is it?Over 100,000 Subclass 408s — are they being misused?

This week someone shared on Facebook the first Subclass 491-to-191 grant. The visa letter looked genuine; many then asked about the specifics of the lodgement. The original post has since been deleted, but the poster gave everyone a consolidated reply on the case

– Invited for Subclass 491 in December 2019; Subclass 491 granted three months later, i.e. early 2020

– Met the three-year requirement in March 2023 and lodged the Subclass 191 application

– Submitted Notices of Assessment for the 2019–20, 2020–21 and 2021–22 financial years; in May this year received a request for an overseas police clearance

– Subclass 191 granted on 25 July 2023

The Subclass 191 backlog is already approaching 1,000 — hopefully normal grant processing will start soon

This week there was also a news report about the Subclass 408 COVID stream (below, “Subclass 408” refers only to the 408 COVID stream). According to a report from the AFR, the number of people holding a Subclass 408 onshore in Australia had reached 105,300 by the end of May this year — nearly 5.2 times the figure a year earlier. Of these, 18,000 were from India, 11,700 from Nepal and 6,400 from mainland China.

Over the past year, about one in six international students has “moved” from a student visa to a Subclass 408, partly to keep full-time work rights. And because student-visa work-hour limits returned on 1 July — 48 hours per fortnight — several thousand new Subclass 408 applications were also lodged in June and July.

International-education representative bodies are therefore keen for the government to suspend the Subclass 408 COVID stream. Experts say that, with Australia’s borders reopened, this stream no longer has a reason to exist, but business groups and employers are also pressing the government to keep Subclass 408 to help address skills shortages.

Earlier this year the government said it had begun considering abolishing Subclass 408, while acknowledging that doing so would affect many employers and employees, so it would not make a hasty decision to scrap it outright and would allow a transition period. Several months on, there has no doubt been plenty of internal discussion, but precisely because there is support as well as opposition, the government has yet to make a final call.

For applicants, the key is to lodge as early as possible once you meet the requirements. Remember to apply for the Subclass 408 within 90 days before your current visa expires; you simply need to be working onshore in Australia, you can include a partner, and there is no English requirement. If you meet the requirements and need help, get in touch with us as soon as possible

5. a week in review — grants, invitations, skills assessments and citizenship processing

A summary of Newstars’ recent grants and invitations across the board:Press and hold below to view; the page is updated continuously, so we strongly recommend saving it to your favourites!

State-nomination invitations / GTI invitation data

Tasmania state nomination (ROI invitation)

ROI lodged 24 July 2023; nomination invitation received 28 July 2023 (Software Engineer – 261313), 60+5, with skills-assessment-relevant work

Canberra (ACT) nomination

The state government issues the nomination approval letter first

Lodged 18 May 2023; ACT 491 invitation received 18 July 2023, Software Engineer

Lodged 20 Feb 2023; ACT 190 invitation received 20 July 2023, Accountant (General)

Lodged 8 May 2023; ACT 491 invitation received 24 July 2023, External Auditor

Lodged 9 May 2023; ACT 190 invitation received 26 July 2023, ICT Business Analyst

Lodged 15 May 2023; ACT 190 invitation received 27 July 2023, Accountant (General)

Lodged 17 May 2023; ACT 190 invitation received 27 July 2023, Financial Investment Adviser

Lodged 11 May 2023; ACT 190 invitation received 28 July 2023, Accountant (General)

GTI

GTI invitation code received 28 July 2023, DigiTech sector

GTI invitation code received 26 July 2023, Health Industries sector

This week’s grant progress and analysis

Subclass 189 Skilled Independent migration

Lodged 16 December 2022; granted 27 July 2023, onshore Accountant, single

Lodged 19 December 2022; granted 27 July 2023, onshore Quantity Surveyor, single

Lodged 26 May 2023; granted 24 July 2023, onshore Nurse, single

Subclass 189 lodged onshore 26 May 2023; granted 24 Jul 2023

Subclass 189 lodged onshore 16 Dec 2022; granted 27 Jul 2023

Subclass 190 State-Nominated Skilled migration

Lodged April 2023; granted 26 July 2023, Radiation Therapist

Lodged 23 November 2022; granted 26 July 2023, Accountant

Lodged April 2023; granted 25 July 2023

Lodged 12 April 2023; granted 25 July 2023, Victoria onshore Nurse, single

Lodged 31 January 2023; granted 24 July 2023, Tasmania onshore Cafe or Restaurant Manager, with partner

Lodged 15 December 2022; granted 24 July 2023, Tasmania onshore Accountant, with partner

Subclass 190 lodged onshore 30 Aug 2022; granted 21 Jul 2023

Subclass 190 lodged onshore 05 Oct 2022; granted 21 Jul 2023

Subclass 190 lodged onshore 19 Jan 2023; granted 26 Jul 2023

Subclass 190 lodged onshore 16 Jan 2023; granted 27 Jul 2023

Subclass 491 (new regional) / 489 (old regional) sponsored visas

Subclass 491 lodged onshore 16 Dec 2022; granted 27 Jul 2023

Subclass 887/191 Regional Permanent Residence visas

None this week

Employer-sponsored

Lodged October 2022; nomination received 5 July 2023; Subclass 186 DE granted 26 July 2023, Accountant

Investor migration / GTI

Subclass 858 lodged 24 February 2023; granted 26 July 2023

Partner migration

Subclass 820 lodged March 2020; Subclass 801 granted 26 July 2023

Subclass 309 lodged January 2020; Subclass 100 granted 24 July 2023

Subclass 820 lodged 8 October 2021; Subclass 820 granted 25 July 2023

Subclass 801 lodged 3 April 2022; granted 26 July 2023

Subclass 801 lodged 23 April 2019; granted 26 July 2023

Parent migration / visas / child visas

Subclass 870 sponsorship lodged 22 June 2023; approved 24 July 2023

Subclass 870 sponsorship lodged mid-June 2023; approved 25 July 2023

Subclass 870 visa lodged 30 June 2023; granted 26 July 2023

Subclass 870 visa lodged 29 June 2023; granted 26 July 2023

Subclass 600 Visitor visa

Lodged 21 July 2023; granted 28 July 2023, parents of a PR holder, maximum 12-month stay

Lodged 30 June 2023; granted 27 July 2023, parents of a PR holder, maximum 12-month stay

Lodged 21 July 2023; granted 27 July 2023, parents of a PR holder, maximum 12-month stay

Lodged 19 July 2023; granted 27 July 2023, offshore application

Lodged 21 July 2023; granted 27 July 2023, offshore application

Lodged 28 June 2023; granted 27 July 2023, offshore application

Lodged 28 June 2023; granted 26 July 2023, offshore application

Lodged 24 July 2023; granted 26 July 2023, offshore application

Lodged 20 July 2023; granted 27 July 2023, three-year multiple-entry

Subclass 600 lodged onshore 19 Jul 2023; granted 21 Jul 2023

Subclass 500 Student visa

Lodged 20 June 2023; granted 24 July 2023, VET

Lodged 24 July 2023; granted 26 July 2023, offshore, Higher Education

Lodged 20 July 2023; granted 24 July 2023, offshore

Subclass 500 lodged onshore 23 Jun 2023; granted 18 Jul 2023

Subclass 485 Graduate Work visa

Lodged May 2023; granted 27 July 2023

Subclass 485 lodged offshore 25 May 2023; granted 25 Jul 2023

Subclass 408 visa

Lodged 21 July 2023; granted 28 July 2023

Lodged 20 July 2023; granted 21 July 2023

Lodged 21 July 2023; granted 25 July 2023

Lodged 25 July 2023; granted 27 July 2023

Lodged 25 July 2023; granted 26 July 2023

Subclass 408 lodged onshore 21 Jul 2023; granted 24 Jul 2023

Subclass 408 lodged onshore 20 Jul 2023; granted 21 Jul 2023

Subclass 408 lodged onshore 07 Feb 2023; granted 22 Jul 2023

Subclass 461 visa

Lodged 13 July 2023; granted 27 July 2023

Subclass 802 visa (child onshore visa)

Lodged 31 January 2023; granted 24 July 2023

Citizenship applications

Lodged 23 May 2023; approved 27 July 2023

Lodged 31 May 2023; approved 24 July 2023

This week’s skills-assessment progress

CA ANZ (accounting)

Lodged 31 May 2023; approved 27 July 2023, CA ANZ overseas-work-experience assessment, occupation: Accountant

VETASSESS

Lodged: 19/07/2023 Passed: 23/07/2023, occupation: Marketing Specialist

Lodged: 21/07/2023 Passed: 25/07/2023, occupation: Private Tutor

Lodged: 14/07/2023 Passed: 22/07/2023, occupation: Retail Manager

Lodged: 30/05/2023 Passed: 27/07/202, occupation: Engineering Technician

Lodged: 15/07/2023 Passed: 22/07/2023, occupation: Risk-Control Specialist

27 July 2023, Electrical Engineering skills assessment approved

Lodged 26 June 2023; approved 26 July 2023, Petroleum Engineer

Lodged mid-June 2023; approved 24 July 2023, Chemical Engineer

Lodged 11 July 2023; result issued 25 July 2023, expedited

Lodged 5 July 2023; result issued 25 July 2023, expedited

ACS

Lodged 13 April 2023; result issued 27 July 2023

Past highlights

Subclass 189/190/491/employer-sponsored processing mostly speeding up — more on the first 191

Where’s the safe bet? Low tuition fees + less score pressure + stable employment — popular WA VET courses

Latest Subclass 143/103 parent-migration backlog and waiting-time estimator!

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[Issue 295 Australia Migration Weekly] An analysis of the serious 190/189/491 backlog impact! A parent-migration waiting-time estimator! Official processing-speed guidance vs the reality on the ground!

Subclass 189/190/491/employer-sponsored processing mostly speeding up — more on the first 191

Where’s the safe bet? Low tuition fees + less score pressure + stable employment — popular WA VET courses

Latest Subclass 143/103 parent-migration backlog and waiting-time estimator!

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