Kirk Yan:Head of the Melbourne branch of Newstarsecec Education & Migration, an Australian MARA-registered migration agent, with several years of experience and in-depth research on migration policy interpretation and change predictions. Editor-in-chief of the Australian Migration Weekly, he is affectionately called Kirk by his students.
I have some news about the surge in net overseas migration that I would like to discuss. Because I think this has or will soon affect visa and migration-related policies in many dimensions.
500,000 net overseas migration (NOM)
NOM is expected to reach 500,000 in the 12 months ending in September this year (Figure 1)
NOM is not just PR, it refers to visa holders who can stay in Australia for at least 12 months. The proportion of new permanent residents is very low. Most of the skilled permanent residents obtained in the fiscal year are already in Australia. Most of the 500,000-mile visa holders are temporary visas 500/462/482/485, etc.
What does 500,000 mean to Australia?
The population of Canberra is 460,000, the Northern Territory is 251,000, and the entire Tasmanian state is about 570,000. Study permit surge (Figure 2)
In fiscal year 22-23, the number of Student visas reached 369,979, which is more than 50% more than in 2019 (Figure 3)
22-23 vs. 21-22
India’s base and growth rate are both scary
China has increased to nearly 100,000. Just judging from the number of applications from our side, I think it will continue to rise.
Rising stars such as Colombia and the Philippines are seeing astonishing growth rates
How many temporary visas have been approved?
Recently, I mentioned it when answering a question from the Senate (Figure 4)
The Department of Home Affairs processed 8.27 million visa applications last financial year
The current visa backlog is about 570,000
The overall reduction was 40%, and the backlog of temporary visas was reduced by 70%.
The number of new applications last fiscal year was quite staggering, and the vast majority were temporary applications.
Population boom increases inflation
September quarter rent prices were 7.6% higher than expected (Figure 5)
The highest value since 2009. HSBC believes that the surge in NOM has caused rents and consumption to rise, intensified inflationary pressure, and also increased the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Figure 6)
⁉Has Labor really thought it through?
The strongest migration slogan during the election campaign was to reduce permanent temporary migrants, that is, to reduce the number of people who have been in Australia but have been unable to convert to PR.
However, in the early days of taking office, most of their policies encouraged and led to more temporary visas, such as the extension of 485, and the decision to cancel 408 after a long delay. It felt that they only saw the reason for “need to increase”, but did not expect the consequences of the increase.
The consequence of multiple stimulus policies is that while we are still waiting for more channels to transfer to permanent residence, the surge in temporary visas has made this problem even more difficult.
They also want to have both. Recently I saw that they also said they wanted to target skilled migrants. The report did not provide details. At least it looked like GTI2.0 (Figure 7).
Already affected the trial
Recently, a series of measures have been taken to suspend the entry of temporary visas. Overseas Student visa processing has been much slower. 408 has been cancelled. This year, the 462 in mainland China has not yet been drawn.
There is no quota for provisional visas. If you add a cap, it will be a huge job. The increase in provisional visas will lead to an increase in population, and the increase in population will aggravate inflation. Everyone will be dissatisfied, and there will be another general election in a year or two. I heard that big bosses from various states are in Canberra this week, so I hope there will be some substantive news.
If you have any questions about Australian migration, you can directly add Kirk’s WeChat account for consultation
