1. Analysis: “State-nomination quotas to be cut due to visa backlog”?

At the MIA annual conference this week, the Assistant Minister for Immigration responded regarding why this year’s state-nomination quotas have still not been announced.He said the Commonwealth considers the current 190+491 visa backlog too large, and is therefore considering reducing state-nomination quotas for this financial year. The Commonwealth and state governments have been in ongoing discussions, with the implication that this is why the quotas have not yet been finalised.

Our analysis:

1. It is unlikely that this financial year will have no quotas, or that we will need to wait several more months.

Most states with nomination programs have now moved in tacit coordination, particularly this week: Tasmania announced its policy and opened applications, NSW fine-tuned its requirements and occupation list, Victoria released its first invitation round, and Canberra announced a new list — at the state-government level, everything appears close to being in place.

2. It is possible that some states’ quotas will be reduced this financial year.

That said, we do not expect cuts on the scale of the 70% reduction seen in FY23-24. The large intake in FY22-23 did indeed create a significant backlog, but after several financial years of effort, the 190+491 backlog has fallen from 97,000+ at the end of FY22-23 to 65,000+ at the end of FY24-25 — a reduction of more than 36,000. If quotas are ultimately reduced, it is more likely to be a modest decrease, or the total remains unchanged while some states rise and others fall.

3. Processing for 190 and 491 is genuinely slowing down.

The after-effects of the FY22-23 large intake are still being felt. Our earlier case reviews show that the single months with the highest current processing volumes are still applications lodged in June/July 2023.The overall processing cycle for state-nomination visas now averages around two years, so the Department should also be feeling the pressure.If quotas really are reduced, that is effectively cutting off the flow at the source — which is certainly one approach.At the same time, we hope that even under this scenario, the Department’s core priority remains allocating more staff to visa processing, because grant volumes for 190 and 491 in July and August both fell below target. On a monthly average, the 190 program should grant around 2,750 and the 491 around 2,333 — the actual figures were 1,809 and 1,077. That has nothing to do with new lodgements or quota limits.

Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic and, in any case, hope the announcement comes soon.

2. Victoria issues first invitation round — priority to onshore applicants in work and on high salaries?

Exactly one week after Victoria announced ROI submissions were open, the state issued its first ROI invitation round — invitations went to a range of occupations, with relatively more in IT. The selection criteria were fairly high, and we have not yet seen invitations for Chinese-language teachers or social workers.Summary below:

On 9 October (the day of invitations) and the following day, 10 October, a number of applicants received notifications:the state government was unable to locate the EOI linked to the ROI, and asked applicants to check whether the EOI had expired or had other issues.

This is a goodwill reminder from the state government, not a pre-announcement of any kind — it does not 100% mean the state intends to send you an ROI invitation but missed you because the EOI could not be located. Victoria has run these checks and sent reminders in the past — it is not new this round. In the same way, the “consolation letters” sent after each invitation round do not guarantee you will be invited next round; many clients who did not receive one were still invited directly. There is no need for undue concern.

3. NSW quietly eases residency requirements and fine-tunes the list

The NSW state government website this week, without prior notice, added that if you find employment in NSW related to your nominated occupation (a job is considered related to the nominated occupation if the first four digits of the ANZSCO code match) you may lodge a 190/491 application immediately. If you are currently in another state, once you secure work in NSW and relocate, you may lodge immediately — saving around six months of time for a 190 application.

On the occupation list, several occupation groups have been added.

4. Major revision to Canberra’s occupation list; Tasmania introduces points-based system

Canberrahas confirmed a new occupation list — the first large-scale revision since 2023. The state government notified MARA-registered migration agents first and will publish it on the official website shortly.The list has been reduced from the original 152 unit groups to 105. It will take effect from the next invitation round.Occupations affected are shown in the image below (a few very niche occupations are not summarised).）：

1. PhD pathway adjustment — PhD applicants will now be invited as part of each regular invitation round, rather than through separate invitations as previously.

2. Clarification of 457/482 visa pathway requirements — applicants must have been employed by the sponsoring employer (holding the sponsored visa) for at least 6 months.

3. Invitation order — Subclass 491 invitations take priority over Subclass 190.

4. Updated Subclass 491 English requirements — applicants must meet the English proficiency level required for the skills assessment.

If your occupation has been removed from the Canberra list and you need to find a new pathway, please contact the customer service below.