Yesterday we shared some information about visa processing wait times. For details, see:Visa processing times updated — is Subclass 189 still faster than 190?

Admittedly, visa processing speeds have improved significantly, and the government periodically publishes its scorecards. But the vast majority of those millions of grants are temporary visas. For migration pathways, the feeling among most people since around August/September last year is that progress still isn’t sufficient — or that the speed improvements haven’t benefited the majority.For example, some Subclass 491 and 190 applications lodged back in 2020 are still waiting. The Subclass 189 cases granted within a few months tend to be in top-tier occupations. And then there are those waiting endlessly for the Subclass 887, or the Subclass 489 with only a small remaining backlog that somehow never gets cleared.

Not just us — employers think the current pace is still not enough

Industry bodies including the Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) have said that, despite Labor’s actions, Australia is still experiencing its tightest labour market conditions since the 1970s, and that further measures are needed to address this.

Their primary concern is typically the employer-sponsored category. Ai Group CEO Innes Willox noted that processing speeds have improved, but the pandemic-driven backlog has not yet been fully resolved, and overall throughput still needs to catch up.

Business Council of Australia (BCA) CEO Jennifer Westacott noted that had migration inflows not been disrupted by the pandemic, Australia’s economy would still be smaller by A$55 billion than originally projected. She urged the government that now is not the time to “take our foot off the accelerator” on migration.

Migration expert Abul Rizvi recently wrote an analysis concluding that state nomination quota releases are falling well short of expectations

(see:Multiple states including NSW and VIC still have large Subclass 190 quotas! WA set to issue another round of invitations and fast-track processing!）

One contributing factor is the sudden surges in Subclass 189 invitations we’ve mentioned multiple times, which have drawn people away from state nomination pathways.

Abul Rizvi analyses that federal and state governments are also closely monitoring real-time changes in labour market vacancies:

Despite employers still calling out worker shortages, actual data shows that employment growth in 2022 set a record for Australia, with 469,700 new jobs added over the year, unemployment falling by only 100,600, and the labour force participation rate rising by just 0.4%.

This means that the newly employed were mostly people who had not previously been in the labour force — and, combined with net overseas migration data and population statistics, a large proportion came from net overseas arrivals.

This labour supply profile will help drive net migration in 2022 and the 2022–23 financial year well above Treasury’s forecast of 235,000. But Treasury also forecasts that the 2023–24 labour market may look quite different, with employment growth of only 0.75% and rising unemployment.

If the number of temporary visa holders entering Australia continues to grow rapidly, on one hand pathways to permanent residency will become more congested — an issue Labor had previously emphasised improving — and on the other, many temporary residents and new permanent residents will find it harder to secure skilled employment, or may earn below-average wages.

So, Rizvi writes, amid ongoing lobbying to continue increasing migration, these data and projections may be factors causing the federal government to take a more cautious approach.

For state governments, if unemployment rises significantly, they may become more conservative about opening up invitations, except for critical occupations (healthcare, education, traditional trade occupations, etc.).

The upcoming reform proposals and federal budget will give a clearer sense of the government’s stance and how it plans to respond. His conclusion is that the key migration policy challenge will be the urgent need for new approaches to meet the needs of international students who want to settle in Australia.

Perhaps it’s a case of extremes always correcting themselves — everything needs a balance. That’s why we often say migration has one window of opportunity after another. At least the first half of 2023 is a clear window. Wait a little longer and things might be better — or they might not be. The time to act is now!

Previously Recommended — Click image to read article

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Subclass 190 quota less than 30% used by year’s end — NSW invites again!

Subclass 190 quota less than 30% used by year’s end — NSW invites again!

Subclass 190 quota less than 30% used by year’s end — NSW invites again!

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