End-of-February EOI Data Update
Let’s compare the backlog for the “Three Treasures”, Secondary Teachers (the four core occupations), and several other in-demand occupations (header image – Image 4)
For a quick refresher on the remaining Subclass 189 quota for this financial year, see my earlier notes (Image 5). An optimistic estimate suggests another 3k–5k Subclass 189 invitations may still be issued this financial year. Combined with the per-occupation quota ceilings (Image 7), let’s work through each occupation in turn.
Predicted Subclass 189 Invitation Scores by Occupation
Early Childhood Teachers
As at the end of February, the backlog of Early Childhood Teachers at 85+ points has already exceeded 13k, with monthly growth at 85+ adding nearly 300 candidates. The remaining quota ceiling for Early Childhood Teachers this financial year is under 200. For the March invitation round, 90+ is relatively safe, while 85-point invitations will be very limited. If the round is pushed back another few months, Early Childhood Teachers will almost certainly need 90 points to have any chance of landing. High-scoring Early Childhood Teacher candidates should seriously look at other states — as I’ve been urging for a long time now — relocate if needed, stack extra points if needed. At the moment, WA still offers opportunities and is worth strong consideration.
Nursing
Backlog remains heavy as ever, with staggering monthly growth. That said, while the pool is large, each round also issues a high volume of invitations, and a substantial quota ceiling is still available.
Despite roughly 6k of ceiling remaining, total Subclass 189 quota is the binding constraint. We expect 80 points to be relatively safe, with some hope for 75-point invitations.
Social Workers
Still in healthy shape — backlog at 75+ points sits around 600, but the quota ceiling is 300. The next round will most likely invite at 80 points.
Secondary Teachers
Secondary Teachers have a large shortfall, with 2,200+ of quota still available — more than the total pool backlog. However, scores are starting to climb: over 100 candidates at 85+ points, and over 800 at 75+. Overall, 80 points looks relatively safe for the next round, with a chance of invitations at 75 points.
Civil Engineering
The backlog is now approaching that of Accounting (the hardest of all), and the high-score band keeps expanding. However, like Accounting, Civil Engineering no longer has a dedicated occupation quota — Subclass 189 is essentially off the table. Civil engineers can, though, consider getting a skills assessment for Draftsperson or Engineering Technician instead. Draftsperson has limited remaining quota but is still being invited; based on current backlog, 90 or even 85 points still has a shot.
Now let’s look at the trades (tradies)
Carpenters at 65+ points: backlog near 600, monthly growth 100+, Subclass 189 quota already over-allocated.
Painters at 65+ points: backlog near 800, quota also over-allocated.
Even though Subclass 189 is over-allocated, tradies continue to be favoured by individual states. For IT and Accounting students still completing their studies or finishing a bachelor’s degree — those who are looking at migration but can’t find a clear path — a fast-track trades course is a genuine alternative to consider.
Overall, given the limited Subclass 189 quota remaining, we expect the next round to issue a smaller volume of invitations. Combined with some occupations having already hit their invitation quota ceiling, opportunities should be relatively scarce.
Today, NSW also delivered on its promise to run a Subclass 190 round in the first week of March, issuing a batch of invitations. Overall, there were no real surprises on occupations — essentially the “Three Treasures”, Healthcare, and Construction — with scores running high and most invitations going to onshore applicants. NSW is genuinely the most competitive of all states; see Image 6 for specifics. Candidates in NSW should also look at other states — if the opportunity is there, we still recommend relocating where it makes sense. Here’s hoping everyone lands their PR soon!
