A year agoaround this time, Australia’s major cities were slowly emerging from lockdown.
A year on,international flights in and out of Australia no longer require masks, and New South Wales and South Australia this week lifted mandatory masking on public transport.
Australia achieved a full reopening of its borders in under six months — and the process of arriving and departing internationally is now essentially the same as it was before the pandemic.
You can feel the difference in Australian cities: more people, more international students, domestic travel has largely returned to normal, accommodation and flights are increasingly hard to book, and travelling overseas to various countries and destinations is once again an everyday occurrence.
The focus of policy attention has been on[recovery]
So,what does the actual return of different migrant cohortslook like?
Here we share ABS data up toJuly/August 2022
First, a quick summary table for everyone
*The temporary category also includes tourists and others
*Temporary work mainly refers to working holiday visas, Pacific Labour Scheme workers, and similar
*A negative net arrival figure means more people departed than arrived
International arrivals and departureshave broadly recovered to about half of pre-pandemic levels↓↓↓
International students .driving long-term/permanent arrival recovery/
From November 2021 to July 2022,the number of permanent or long-term net arrivals(meaning people who, after arriving, are very likely to settle or stay for an extended period)was115,580— roughly also only half of pre-pandemic levels.
Among the source countries for international arrivals, the return of the Indian cohort has been very strong and rapid.
Those from the United Kingdom and New Zealand have been slower, but are gradually picking up.
Return flows from China .very slow, with student visas carrying the load/
The return from China has been the slowest of all. There has been some improvement over recent months, but as the chart below shows, the level is still far short of pre-pandemic figures. From November last year to July this year,the net arrivals from mainland China stood at a positive 65,480 — covering all visa types, but predominantly student visas(detailed by visa category below).
Return of permanent visa holdersThis mainly covers three groups: skilled permanent visas, family permanent visas, and Subclass 155 and similar resident return visas.
Skilled permanent visas. Some may still want to return but can’t yet/
From November last year to July this year,the net arrival figure for skilled permanent visa holders was 8,700 — roughly half of pre-pandemic levels.
This is probably not because people are unwilling to return, but because they are unable to.First, the number of new skilled permanent visas granted to offshore applicants during the two years of the pandemic dropped sharply — not much new stock was added.Second,processing of the backlogged skilled permanent visas remains relatively slow— although the Minister for Home Affairs has said priority will be given, there has been no large-scale clearance visible so far.Of course, individual cases that have supplied documents are still being decided and granted — it hasn’t ground to a complete halt.
So the people who have come back are eitheroffshore applicants who finally had their visa granted, or people who already held PR when they departedand are now returning to Australia for various reasons.
Family permanent visas .departures exceeding arrivals/
The overall movement and trend for the family permanent category is rapidly recovering to pre-pandemic conditions,the net arrival figure is -5,250 —which is negative — not because no one is arriving,but because a large number of family migrants are departing to visit relatives and friends overseas.
Subclass 155/157 Resident Return ./
Think of this group as‘long-term migrants’— at least in terms of how long they have held PR, it is relatively substantial.The net arrival figure for this cohort is -8,000— which is not hard to understand: once all entry and exit restrictions were lifted, they travelled overseas and visited relatives and friends. So you can clearly see this cohort showing a wave of departures in late 2021, followed by a wave of arrivals in early the following year.
Skilled temporary visas .a strong return recovery/
These primarilyrefer to employer-sponsored visa categoriesand other skilled visa streams; with strong employer support and targeted government backing, they are among the fastest-recovering categories. The net arrival figure from November last year to mid-this-year was 16,390 —and this trend is expected to continue for some time.
A considerable proportion of these individuals may eventually transition to permanent residency.
Student visas .a key driver/
In terms of numbers, other categories simply cannot compare with the student visa — it is the key driver behind Australia’s overall return to normal international movement.
From November last year to March this year,the opening of the border coincided with the start of the academic year, and international students returned quickly. The second major enrolment intake of the year,July and August, continued to bring a surge in student numbers — though still not as high as pre-pandemic levels— partly because student visa processing has become more stringent, and the Department has found fraud to be increasingly serious since student visa holders were temporarily permitted to work full-time.
Also worth noting:from June to August 2022, the number of student visa holders departing was also higher than usual. There is a possibility that students are taking advantage of the holiday period and the easing of entry and exit restrictionsto travel or return home for family visits, and there may also be some who are affected by migration policy changes.
The situation now is thatthose in Australia are keen to travel overseas or return home to visit family— the former faces essentially no barriers anymore, while the latter may still require a few additional considerations.
Employer-sponsored migration — especially offshore — should continue to grow from here.Looking at the first round of Subclass 189 invitations and the state nomination invitations already issued,the new intake of skilled migrants from offshore will certainly be much better than in recent years — it’s just that there is time involved between receiving an invitation and actually arriving in Australia.
It is understandable thatpermanentresidency has a longer overall timeline than temporary visas— in particular,it would be great if approval processingspeed could be a boost,rather than a dragon progress.
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