43% of respondents expect little change in their personal income,meaning they do not expect to keep pace with inflation. 22% believe their income will rise by a few percentage points — just enough to match inflation.

Those with higher education and higher incomes tend to be more confident about the economy — they can work from home, change jobs, or draw on savings as a buffer,while those in trade, lower-skilled, or lower-income work are more pessimistic or uncertain,reflecting the pandemic’s disproportionate impact on these roles and the inherent precariousness of such work.

Related to this,only 30% of respondents expect the economic outlook to improve over the next three months,down from 42% in October last year. The largest share — 41% — expect things to stay the same, while 21% think conditions will worsen. Omicron has clearly taken its toll, which likely explains why both federal and state governments are so eager to reopen.

When asked about the full-year outlook, 52% expect the economy to improve, compared with 59% when the same question was asked in October.

Limited confidence in economic recovery and income growth has also contributed to voter hesitation about migration returning to pre-border-closure levels,a restart is clearly necessary — but should the quota be 160,000? Less? More?The latest survey results are below ↓

Compared with an identical survey conducted in November last year,sentiment has turned slightly more negative.

This also differs from another survey conducted in October 2021, when there was still anticipation about borders reopening for visa holders and travellers.

This also contrasts with the views of nearly 50 prominent economists reported this same week — an Economics Society of Australia poll surveyed leading economists from major Australian universities and well-known business organisations,finding that 39.6% believe restoring the quota to 190,000 is about right, while 37.5% think even 190,000 is not enough and the number should be higher — meaning the majority support an increase above 160,000.

For more detail, see:75% Say Next Financial Year’s PR Quota Should Be Restored to 190,000 or More! Leading Economists Analyse the Case for Increasing Migration from Multiple Angles!

Migration programme quota

The migration figure debated so loudly before every election is the federal government’sannually setMigration Programme planning level for each financial year, which can also be understoodas the number of PRs granted in a financial year(including two-step PR pathways such as Subclass 491/482, and secondary applicants). The quota for the next financial year is typically announced alongside the federal budget in May or June each year; this year, due to the May election, it will be released early — by the end of March.

This is a planning figure,and the actual number of visas granted may come in below or above it.The gap is generally not large: for example, in the 2019–20 financial year, the sudden border closure meant a quota of 160,000 resulted in just over 140,000 grants; in the most recent 2020–21 financial year, the same quota of 160,000 was slightly exceeded.

How the federal migration programme quota relates to the state nomination quota / Subclass 189 quota

The two are not directly linked,but the migration programme quota underpins the state nomination / Subclass 189 quota — the latter cannot issue invitations without the former being in place.

In that same 2019–20 financial year, a stretched federal government did not release the budget until October — meaningat the start of the new financial year nobody knew what the migration quota was, so state governments received no state nomination allocation and could not issue nominations,forcing them to rely on so-called transitional state nomination allocations as a stopgap.

Quantity gap:If a state nomination includes a spouse or children, it consumes 2 or 3 migration programme quota places.

Timing gap:As everyone knows, current visa processing times mean that for most occupations, a grant within one year is considered fast — so if you receive an invitation and lodge your visa in one financial year but the visa is granted in the next, it draws onthe following year’s migration programme quota.Over the past year or two, the pace at which states process and issue nominations has clearly outstripped the Department of Home Affairs’ visa processing speed.

Migration quota vs. migration numbers

There is alsothe “migration numbers” that the media most frequently cite, which actually refer to net overseas migration, a broader migration measure,that covers not only PR holders but also temporary residents such as international students who reside in Australia for 12 months or more,a figure that runs into the hundreds of thousands,and has a far larger practical impact on daily life across Australia.

The poll question is therefore somewhat misleading — the background note states that Australia’s pre-pandemic migration programme intake was 160,000 per year, and asks whether you think it should be restarted at the same levelto restart the programme— in reality, the “160,000 migration programme” was never closed during the two pandemic years; visas continued to be granted, albeit slowly,and it was net overseas migration numbers that fell sharply.

When asked to choose two, 55% said immediate family members of residents, 49% said spouses of residents,not far behind the 42% who chose skilled migration workers.

This is not hard to understand:academics and expertscan analyse as thoroughly as they like, but they speak from amacroeconomic perspective,, objectively speaking.

As avoter —, and in fact not just as a voter but as someone who actually lives here — you naturally care more about thingscloser to home: jobs, wages, the cost of living, and house pricesand so on.

Similarly, once you have PR, your attention shifts to things like parent migration; most people stop actively following migration policy. Once you receive a state nomination, for example, you tend to care less about your state’s policies and more about the next step: getting the visa processed.

Then there areemployers and business owners,who, from market growth to filling workforce gaps, naturally want more, so business and industry leaders keep lobbying the government every day, saying they cannot find enough workers — which is also the single biggest reason employer-sponsored visa processing has become so fast.

Then there are universities,which have suffered severe financial losses over nearly two pandemic years,, as well as themigration-related organisations that diligently submit recommendations to the government every year, and theytend to hold more positive views on migration numbers.

Perspective, when it comes down to it, is a viewpoint shaped by where you stand and what you stand to gain.

All of the above parties — and more — can influence the “political battleground”, so public arguments of all kinds are inevitable before an election; but migration has always been a sensitive and divisive topic, so most parties tend to soften their positions before polling day.