Multiple Popular Migration Occupations Invited at Low Scores! Interstate Students Fast-Tracking Their Way In! Canberra State Nomination: This Year’s Wrap-Up + Next Year’s Forecast!

Canberra was allocated a total of 1,400 places in the 2020-2021 financial year.

August-October 2020 transition period: inviting as many as possible

To implement the Department of Home Affairs’ Critical List requirement, the ACT Critical List published last August removed occupations no longer in demand and set a cap for each occupation,but the ACT Government did everything it could to keep many popular migration occupations, including accounting, on the list. On 19 August 2020, Canberra was the first to receive its August-October allocation — 250 places for 190 and 45 for 491. From 20 August, it ran two invitation rounds a month for a steady three months.

From December 2020, it went “full steam ahead”

After 9 December 2020, the ACT Government announced Canberra’s overall FY2021 allocation would remain at 1,400 — unchanged from pre-pandemic levels — with 190 and 491 places split roughly 50/50.In the second half of FY2021, thanks to ample places, Canberra issued invitations every single week for 20 straight weeks, and scores for major occupations kept trending down.

Well-reasoned, evidence-based state nomination processing

The ACT Government has drawn up very detailed guidelines, with every rule backed by clear reasoning. So as long as you meet the government’s mandatory requirements and score above the minimum invitation threshold for that round,the government will issue an invitation — there’s no risk of applying for 190 and being handed 491 instead, or of being refused without reason.

Below are the invitation score movements over the past year for a few popular occupations —

Accounting 190 started at a Matrix score of 125 and eventually settled at around 110,with three invitation rounds, the lowest at 105 points,and the 105-point 190 invitation ran through to March 2021.491, meanwhile, dropped from an initial 125 points down to 95 by the end.Although accounting scores were very high,the ACT Government pushed back against the odds during the pandemic to keep accounting on the Critical List — no small feat.

IT occupations across the board were the biggest winners this financial year, with ample places — 80 a month for IT overall, including 20 for 2611 and 40 for 2613. Because places were relatively plentiful, scores stayed relatively low even though IT was the hottest field. Below are three of the more popular occupations we’ve picked out:The invitation score curve for 2611, 2613 and 2631 over this financial year.

ICT2611

ICT2613

ICT2631

As you can see, IT scores fluctuated up and down,190 peaked at 110 points and dropped as low as 60, with 70 generally enough for a stable invitation.491 fell as low as 50 points in the final few months of the financial year.

Astudent from another state wanting to apply for 491should refer to the scoring approach below:

Based on the current situation,Canberra 491 only takes 3-6 months.190, on the other hand, has relatively higher score requirements — an interstate graduate needs to find a related job in the ACT, or live there for over a year, before reaching the minimum invitation score.

The reason Canberra’s scores don’t just keep falling or keep rising, but swing quite a bit instead, is that the ACT Government splits the year’s overall allocation evenly across 12 instalments, so thatthe same number of people are invited each month — which keeps places available right through to the end of the financial year.For example, this financial year the government’s allocation wasn’t exhausted until late June, which lets it keep invitations as steady as possible month by month.

Infrastructure occupations have always been ones the ACT Government pays close attention to. Civil engineering and QS share 5 places a month between them,and while the places are relatively few, there’s relatively little competition — almost no local graduates — so scores are relatively low.190 cleared out all previous 70-point applicants on 2 June, while 491 cleared out all previous 50-point applicants on 26 May.

2332 Civil Engineering

Below is the most common scoring combination for a 190 invitation:

Scenario 1:

Scenario 2:

2324 Graphic Design

Graphic design is a relatively niche occupation, since you need a year of highly relevant work experience to get a positive skills assessment. This occupation doesn’t have invitation data every single round,because not every round has applicants submitting a Matrix score. Whether you go for 491 or 190, the minimum invitation score is 65 points,so whether to submit for 190 or 491 mainly depends on whether the applicant’s visa allows full-time work for at least 6 months.

2725Social work

Social work doesn’t get an invitation every round either,and applicants are few and far between,this occupation is only offered as a postgraduate program in Canberra by ACU (Australian Catholic University),but because it requires a particular academic background,very few people enrol, so most applicants for this occupation are graduates from other states.And becausethis occupation is very easy to find work in here in Canberra,so everyone’s scores are basically 70 points or above.In September 2020 there was a 190 invitation at as low as 60 points, generally settling around 70.491 scores aren’t much different from 190.

2411 Early Childhood Education

Early childhood education returned to the list in August 2020,this occupation is in very short supply in Canberra,but because early childhood education wasn’t on the ACT 190 list before August, the number of people who stayed in the ACT without a nomination after August was small, so very few people applied each round and scores were quite stable, because all early childhood education applicants had work related to their occupation,early childhood education ranks first on Canberra’s easiest-to-find-work occupation list,so scores for early childhood education applications hover around 70 points.

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There’s no major change to Australia’s overall migration allocation for the new financial year — the budget report shows the 2021-2022 migration allocation holding steady with last year at 160,000 places.But the ACT Government has been approved for 2,000 places (600 for 190 and 1,400 for 491).Looking back over the past 5 years, the government’s allocation started at 800, climbed to 1,400, and will climb again to 2,000 next financial year.The ACT Government has consistently taken a steady, step-by-step approach to attracting in-demand talent from every state.

Although the overall allocation has grown,491 places have more than doubled, but 190 places have dropped from 800 last year to 600 — which is bound to push 190 scores up and make competition fierce.But491 scoreswill likely stay at this year’s ultra-low levels, or even lower.

Of course, all the analysis above applies to the standard streams. If you hold a Canberra 482 employer-sponsored stream, you won’t be subject to the ACT Critical List restriction — a Matrix score of 60 is enough for an invitation.

Although Canberra’s policy isn’t the simplest on the surface,what makes it valuable is its stability and the ACT Government’s efficiency — you can build it into your long-term migration plan.It’s precisely because it’s “not that simple” that Canberra’s policy stays more stable.

If you’re graduating soon or within the next year, and you’re in another state, and want an assessment for Canberra state nomination, feel free to contact me directly!

Migration information sharing and Q&A group