Kirk Yan:Head of the Melbourne branch of Newstarsecec Education & Migration, an Australian MARA-registered migration agent, with several years of experience and in-depth research on migration policy interpretation and change predictions. Editor-in-chief of the Australian Migration Weekly, he is affectionately called Kirk by his students.
Most of my previous articles were about analysing skilled migration, and I rarely published information and data about 188/888 migration. In this wave of FOI, while requesting data from the Department of Home Affairs on skilled migration, I also obtained the backlog data of 188/888. Let me share it with you first.
Figure 1 can intuitively see the 188/888 data – there is a huge backlog, slow processing, and long waiting times, which is very outrageous.
The specific analysis is as follows:
According to Figure 2, as of July 31, 2023, there were as many as 20,015 188 visas that had not been approved. By August 31, there were still 19,986 left, and 29 188 visas had been approved in a whole month.
Don’t forget, this still includes the total number of primary and secondary applications. Generally, for 188 applicants, a family of four or even five is the norm. That is, the Department may approve 188 visas for 6-7 families in one month⁉
If calculated according to this year’s quota, how long will the remaining people have to wait? The number of 188 visa grants for this fiscal year is 1,900 (including primary and secondary applications). Simple math: 19986/1900=10.5 years! Even if the quota of 5,000 in the previous fiscal year is used, it will take nearly 4 years to wait.
Don’t forget that 188 is just a temporary visa. What about 888 for permanent residence?
It usually takes at least 3 to 4 years after the 188 visa is issued to be transferred to the 888 visa. The 888 visa does not occupy the migration quota. However, from July to August, only 262 applications were approved in one month (including primary and secondary applications). A large number of 888 applicants have also been waiting for N years and have not yet waited for the final visa.
The last financial year was a blowout year for skilled migration invitations and visa approvals, but 188/888 was almost exactly the same as during Covid, without any improvement or advancement.
The quota of 5,000 visa grants in fiscal year 188 has also been reduced. This fiscal year, the cuts will continue to be drastic, which is of course why this fiscal year, the federal government will not give even a single 188 invitation quota to the states.
If the number of visa grants for batch 188 has not been significantly increased, then it will be normal for the invitation to be delayed. It is also the same reason why the invitation quota for skilled migration has been cut so many this year (there were too many invitations in the last fiscal year, and there was a large backlog of visas).
Of course, those who are more looking forward to it are the 888 applicants. At least the Department has recently made it clear that it will speed up the processing. The last time a similar statement was made for the 887 skilled migration, it was indeed cleared up in large numbers very quickly. The backlog was cleared in just a few months. The actual situation has indeed begun to make some progress.
Many people often say that you can move to any country if you have money, or that you can’t move if you are poor or lowly?
This sentence seems to be temporarily untenable in Australia. As for whether this is a short-term situation or a long-term national policy, we can only look at it in the future.
If you have any questions about Australian migration, you can directly add Kirk’s WeChat account for consultation
