Immigration Minister: “Visa backlog could fall by 400,000 by year-end!” The reform agenda revealed — too many temps with no path to PR, regional migrants who leave once they get PR, and skilled visas not always going to skilled workers?


Today, the Immigration Ministerwas invited to speak at the Australia migration forum hosted by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), titled Evolving Australia’ Migration System,the MinisterThe Minister shared updated visa processing data and arrangements in his address.

The major migration system reform announced last week released a 12-page discussion paper, which set out seven key problems with the current system, formally inviting public submissions. The paper sincerely asks: how should the system be reformed?

There’s a lot to cover — let us walk you through it point by point.

Backlog expected to fall to 600,000 by year-end

Currently sitting at 755,000





The Minister is back with another progress report. The new Labor Government took office in May and began systematically addressing the visa backlog from around June. Since 1 June:

– Finalised more than 3 million applications

– Hired more than 300 new staff to assist with visa processing

Currently, the visa application backlog has been reduced from its peak of 1 million down to 755,000. By year-end, the backlog is expected to return to around 600,000 — the government’s own interim target — and progress appears on track. That represents a reduction of close to 400,000 since taking office.



Prioritisation must have clear hierarchy

Prioritising everything means prioritising nothing





– Straightforward cases are being automated, freeing up staff to focus on complex applications


– Simplified the priority processing arrangements for skilled migration — specifically, scrapping the previous PMSOL list and issuing a new ministerial direction that places all skilled migration categories on equal priority, with no hierarchy between them.

– He noted that the previous complexity in prioritisation was adding up to 45 minutes per skilled visa case, with staff spending significant time simply sorting and categorising applications.


All skilled visa processing speeds are expected to improve as a result.


Reaffirms: the $53,900 TSMIT threshold will rise

The question is: by how much?





Consistent with what the Home Affairs Minister has previously signalled, this reform process encourages bold, breakthrough ideas from all stakeholders.


The $53,900 Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT) will be raised — the question now is by how much.


There was also a renewed emphasis on providing temporary visa holders with clearer pathways to permanent residency — they cannot be left in a permanent state of “temporary.”


Newstars editor’s note:


On the processing front, we have genuinely seen many categories speed up over the past fortnight — from temporary visas to skilled migration and parent visas.That said, some of what we’re observing on the ground doesn’t quite match what the Minister described — or at least, he hasn’t explained the discrepancies.

For instance, while he said offshore applications were being prioritised, recent grants have skewed heavily onshore — particularly for migration categories.
In skilled migration, there was a sudden wave of Subclass 190 grants — the most recent ones we’ve seen lodged as far back as January 2022. Does this mean Subclass 491/189 is next in line?
Also, the Subclass 408 and other temporary visa grants have had a very obvious “KPI rush” feel — grants coming through extremely abruptly, with no prior notification, causing some confusion — for example, applicants who couldn’t withdraw in time and had their visa superseded (for details, see: Large wave of migration invitations and approvals — act immediately after lodgement or grant! Don’t let your migration journey go to waste…

On the topic of migration reform, there is some new news today: the public submission portal for the more detailed 12-page Discussion Paper is now officially open, with a submission deadline of 15 December 2022.The review’s summary and recommendations report will be submitted to the Federal Government in February next year, with specific measures potentially announced in next year’s May Budget at the earliest.

Problem 1

Are skilled migration visas actually going to skilled workers?




The paper begins by noting that since the 1990s, Australia’s migration system has emphasised skilled migration. Even during recent years when skilled quotas were significantly cut, the numerical gap between the family and skilled streams remained modest. Australia undeniably needs skilled migrants to support the economy across many sectors.


In practice, however, a large proportion of skilled migration visas are not going to skilled workers themselves — 55% of skilled visas were granted to secondary applicants, most of whom are the skilled worker’s spouse or children.This is not inherently problematic — the concern is that the skills profile of secondary applicants is not collected during the assessment process, nor is there any follow-up after the visa is granted.


With such a high proportion unaccounted for, governments at all levels have no clear picture of what role skilled migrants are actually playing — or could play — in the economy.


Problem 2

COVID worsened skills shortages — making the right selection even more critical




There is broad consensus that labour shortages now span virtually every industry and occupation, which has led some to argue for scrapping the skilled occupation list altogether.


However, the Discussion Paper notes that migration can play a critical role in supplementing employment while providing a buffer period to train the domestic workforce.This makes it more important than ever to select the right skills through the right visa programme — the goal being to create opportunities through improved innovation and growth, not to crowd out opportunities for Australians.In other words, this is not a zero-sum game. The focus must be on sustainable growth — bringing in one migrant could create two jobs, benefiting everyone.


Problem 3  

Visa settings and supporting systems: a tangled mess




Most people are only familiar with a handful of visa types, but you may not know that Australia currently has more than 100 separate visa groups, each with detailed legislative requirements. The supporting IT systems number more than 20, along with numerous legacy systems, all involved in lodging and processing applications and collecting applicant data.


This reflects the reality that many visas were created at a particular point in time for a specific purpose — leaving the system as a whole a patchwork of ad-hoc measures, rather than one built around a coherent long-term objective.


The result is that it is difficult to accurately navigate prospective migrants through the system — professional guidance is essentially required. Government administration is inefficient and costly, and when the government wants to achieve a particular outcome, there is often no clear existing pathway to do so.


Rather than elaborate further, the chart below says it all:







Problem 4  

Temporary visa proliferation with no clear pathway to permanent residency





The chart below shows the number of people onshore on temporary visas as at end-October (excluding categories such as Subclass 188 and 491 that have a pathway to PR): Overall numbers have broadly recovered

However, of these more than 2 million people onshore on temporary visas, most are uncertain whether they will be able to stay and obtain permanent residency.

The pathways to PR are relatively strong for employer-sponsored Subclass 482 holders — overall, more than 70% can transition to an employer-sponsored permanent visa. Additionally, close to 70% of those who migrated through state nomination previously held a student visa. Some international graduates also transition via Subclass 189, employer sponsorship, or investor migration.The majority of the rest face uncertainty.

The failure of so many temporary residents to transition to PR may stem from frequent policy changes, supply-demand imbalances, or a combination of factors — but regardless of the cause, a growing population of long-term temporary residents damages Australia’s international competitiveness and reputation, and domestically leads to increasing exploitation, discrimination, and inequity.

Compounding this are the processing delays of the past two to three years, which have caused many temporary visa holders to voluntarily — or involuntarily — give up on their applications.


Problem 5   

Migrants leave regional areas once they get PR — how to fix this?




There is no shortage of visas and programmes designed to encourage settlement in regional areas, with numerous agreements aimed at directing migrants away from the major cities. Yet regional visa programmes are significantly underutilised — migrants typically move back to major cities once they obtain permanent residency.

There is also ongoing uncertainty around how “regional” is defined for migration purposes — why does a particular location qualify, and what distinguishes one regional area from another?


Problem 6   

Skilled visa settings don’t match employers’ real needs




This is a well-discussed topic — we won’t repeat the debate around salary levels and occupation lists. The Discussion Paper also flags that there is a misalignment between labour market needs, employment opportunities, and the pathways available to international graduates to obtain PR — meaning Australia is failing to fully utilise the skills of its international graduates.


Problem 7    

Skilled migrants unable to find work in their field or at their skill level




This is a long-standing criticism from outside the system — no need to elaborate further.


These seven problems — laid out at length — are not our words, but the government’s own. In all sincerity, here are the key questions:key questions:

You are welcome to submit your feedback before mid-December. The submission URL is:https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/reports-and-publications/reviews-and-inquiries/departmental-reviews/migration-system-for-australias-future/submission

Newstars editor’s note (continued)


Having read the Discussion Paper, this team of government leaders driving the reform review has identified the issues with impressive clarity — some of which don’t even come up in our day-to-day conversations.

The problems are numerous and significant. Some are not purely migration or visa issues — and changing them cannot be achieved through one or two policy tweaks alone.

Take regional migration, for instance — whether migrants stay is deeply tied to urban planning and regional development. This topic has been debated at length for years, and yet the problems persist. Programmes and visa pathways have been set up, but the issue often isn’t the plan — it’s a lack of genuine follow-through on implementation.Today happens to be 16 November — the first day Subclass 491 holders can transition to Subclass 191. As of publication, we had yet to see the detailed legislation or any update on the Department of Home Affairs website. It’s precisely these small details that erode people’s confidence and patience.

Raising so many large questions is both a good sign and a sobering one. Change could be seismic — or it could be a long time coming.

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