Former NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, who actively championed the NSW international student pilot programme, was appointed as the new NSW Premier last week. True to form as a new leader eager to make his mark, he promptly announced further relaxations to NSW’s reopening plan.

The proposal: an “explosive” migration surge?

In a number of meetings last week, The Australian Financial Reviewhas learnt thatsenior NSW officials advised Dominic Perrottet to seize the initiative and drive a national conversation about aggressively restoring migration levels as a key lever for economic recovery and post-pandemic growth.

They advised the Premier that Australia needs apost-World War II–style “explosive” migration surge,attracting 2 million migrants over five years to rebuild the economy and address the worsening labour shortage.

In short, the hope is that NSW — as an economic powerhouse with a more open mindset — can take the lead.

The document, reportedly classified at the highest level of confidentiality, was prepared by senior NSW government officials as part of a Department of Premier and Cabinet briefing for the incoming Premier — meaning he had already seen these recommendations when he was sworn in last week.

He was also advised that a migration surge within a “limited window” could include“doubling” pre-pandemic migration numbers over the next five years,alongside a sustained focus on skilled migrants needed for key industries.

Doubling the pre-pandemic proportion of population growthwould mean net migration figures jumping to over 400,000 per year,with cumulative population growth from net overseas migration reaching 2 million by 2026.

*Net overseas migration includes not only permanent residents (PR) but also temporary migrants who remain in Australia for 12 months or more.

NSW Premier: speed up border reopening — we can’t afford to miss out on skilled migrants

The Prime Minister said on Sunday that discussions were under way with NSW about accelerating the timeline for border reopening. Dominic Perrottet stated on Monday that,with widespread labour shortages across the board, borders need to open to ensure a healthy economic recovery.

““If we miss this opportunity, those skilled migrants will go to other countries,we won’t get the engineers, the accountants — they’ll turn to other options.”

“We need to move away from a hotel quarantine system based on individual beds and towards a system better suited to bringing people into the country on a smoother basis.I think by next year we will see a very different migration policy, and I hope we will start to see more people coming in to fill those jobs.”

NSW, which entered its initial reopening phase this Monday, is pushing to replace 14-day hotel quarantine with home isolation for fully vaccinated Australian PR holders and citizens,and is also reassessing the cap on incoming travellers.

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Western Sydney University Vice-Chancellor: a new round of migration debate is coming

Peter Shergold, Vice-Chancellor of Western Sydney University, former senior federal government official, and one of the driving forces behind NSW’s international student return-to-Australia programme, has stated:“There is a need to fully restore higher levels of migration — both in terms of skilled migrationand in being more generous towards international students entering on temporary visas and those entering on humanitarian visas. All of these are important to the future of the NSW economy.”

He anticipates that the post-pandemic recovery will trigger a fresh debate about whether more people need to settle in NSW, where labour shortages are most severe(presumably in terms of absolute numbers),and about what balance is sought between permanent and temporary residents,given that for a long period before the pandemic, NSW — and indeed all of Australia — relied heavily on a much larger volume of temporary migrants, including working holiday visa holders, temporary skilled workers, and international students.

Immigration Minister: skilled migration quota will remain flexible within this financial year’s overall programme

The federal Minister for Immigration, in today’s announcement of the results of the 2020–21 migration programme, also outlined the 2021–22 programme:

- The 2021–22 migration programme will continue to focus on visa categories that support Australia’s economic rebound and ensure a steady flow of net overseas migration;

- Priority will continue to be given to skilled migrants who can drive Australia’s economic growth, job creation, and investment;

- The migration programme will also continue to respond flexibly to the health, border, and economic uncertainty created by the pandemic

- The overall programme ceiling is 160,000 PR places, maintaining the same category composition as the previous financial year,which also includes flexible movement of allocations within the skilled migration stream(in 2020–21, GTI and investor migration places were flexibly redirected to Subclass 189/190/491 categories)

So, this is what weare currently seeing from the federalgovernmentin terms of itsstance.

Take a calm and rational view, and stay hopeful.

As many will recall, NSW’s attitude towards migration before the pandemic was relatively negative — too crowded, too many people. Post-pandemic, that attitude has done a complete 180-degree turn, of course driven in part by the very different reality that has emerged from the pandemic experience.

This represents internal advice from senior state government officials to the new Premier about pushing the federal government’s position and stance — but beyond what the Premier needs to weigh up, there are many more layers, and even more considerations fall to the federal Prime Minister.

As Peter Shergold noted, what may follow is yet another series of debates — about whether migration is needed or not, how much or how little, targeting shortages or at scale — all accompanying the border reopening for skilled migrants and international students.Whether this will have any effect is something no one can answer right now — but to say it has absolutely no significance would be an overstatement, given that this is NSW and that it comes from a formal proposal by senior government officials.Many different positions and voices will emerge in the coming period.

All in all, the message is to watch and listen. For those who want to migrate, whatever stage they are at, the news right now is positive — and much of it is coming from official sources. That is far better than hearing nothing at all, and certainly better than seeing words like “not needed” or “cuts”.

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Australian PR granted in 35 days — offshore applicant!

Australian PR granted in 35 days — offshore applicant!

Multiple occupations invited at 65 points, with large numbers of Subclass 190 invitations issued each round!Statenomination dark horses!

TAS and ACT state nomination remaining quota and refusal rates updated! Borders may open as early as 1 November!

Calling on Australia to grant a one-off amnesty to temporary residents waiting for migration! Restore the original PR quota for skilled migration!

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