Today, according to a Guardian report,unions and employers have reached an agreement to support the government’s October budget update, which would increase the migration programme by 40,000 places — from the current 160,000 to 200,000 — and maintain that 200,000 figure for at least the next two years!Combined with yesterday’s news of major increases across state nomination quotas, it’s fair to say that skilled migrants who have been waiting patiently are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. For a full analysis of the new financial year’s state nomination quotas and overall migration programme, tune in to our Xiaohongshu live stream at 4 pm this afternoon! (See the poster at the top of the page.)

Last night, the Department of Home Affairs published the transitional quotas for state nomination programmes for the new financial year — the much-anticipated allocations have finally arrived, albeit fashionably late.

What’s particularly exciting is thatthe Subclass 190 quota across all states this financial year has reached 30,610 places — nearly 20,000 more than last year!And don’t forget: these are only the transitional quotas. There’s still potential for further increases after the October budget.

The Department updated last financial year’s state nomination quotas back in March. We’ve compared this year’s allocations with last year’s figures — see the table below ▼▼▼

Looking at this year’s quota numbers,the Subclass 190 quota in particular has almost doubled — from 15,000+ last year to 30,000+ this year.

Subclass 491 changes are relatively modest, with some states up and others down,but it’s clear that the 190 quota now far outweighs 491 — at nearly a 2:1 ratio., which strongly signals that the newly elected Labor Government wants to help more people obtain PR faster and more directly, rather than keeping people on temporary visas indefinitely.

Here’s a breakdown of the quotas for each state.

Victoria:

Victoria is arguably the biggest winner this financial year — as you can see from the table above,both Subclass 190 and 491 have nearly tripled!

Victoria’s eligibility requirements have also eased this financial year, with more occupations now eligible for nomination. All occupations on the occupation list will be eligible — STEMM Skills will no longer be required, and applicants working in a target sector may apply. Both onshore and offshore applicants can submit applications. (For details, click here:Victoria Opens New Financial Year State Nomination — More Occupations Eligible! Tasmania Updates Transitional Quotas — Subclass 190 Nearly Doubles!)

New South Wales:

NSW’s combined Subclass 190 and 491 quota this financial year is approximately 12,000 — an increase of more than 4,000 places compared to last year.Such a high quota this financial year is an encouraging sign — it may mean that the application threshold won’t be as demanding as before; otherwise it would be difficult to fill that many places.

Of course, we are still waiting for NSW to officially publish the occupation list and specific requirements. The state government has indicated this will be coming soon — so stay tuned.

Western Australia:

Western Australia is the second-biggest winner this financial year after Victoria.At the start of last financial year, WA received only around 1,000 Subclass 190 and around 1,000 Subclass 491 places, with some additional quota granted at year-end. The WA government had previously indicated it would seek 5,000 places this year — and has indeed delivered: 5,350 Subclass 190 places and 2,790 Subclass 491 places!

For many students from other states, WA holds tremendous appeal this year. Job opportunities are plentiful, and with fewer students having gone to WA during the pandemic years — due to both pre-pandemic policy settings and the state’s prolonged border closure — WA is now in significant need of people. Additionally, there aren’t enough local students to absorb the allocated quota, so we believe more interstate students will be able to pursue WA state nomination this financial year.

Tasmania:

Tasmania’s Subclass 190 quota has also risen considerably this financial year — nearly doubling. Given that Tasmania has a relatively small population of around 500,000, the 190 quota is actually quite substantial compared to other larger states. Fewer students have gone to Tasmania in recent years, and the new financial year policies have also been adjusted. (For details, see:Victoria Opens New Financial Year State Nomination — More Occupations Eligible! Tasmania Updates Transitional Quotas — Subclass 190 Nearly Doubles!) With sufficient quota available, applicants who meet the minimum threshold still have a solid chance.

However, the Subclass 491 quota has dropped quite significantly this year — from 2,200 down to 1,350. If this trend holds, those pursuing Tasmania’s 491 pathway will face a more challenging environment with greater competitive pressure. We do hope Tasmania will secure additional quota allocations in due course.

Australian Capital Territory:

ACT’s Subclass 190 quota has also increased slightly this financial year, and Subclass 491 has grown by over 500 places — which is reasonable given ACT’s overall scale.That said, compared to other states the quota remains relatively limited, and competition will still be fierce. In particular, ACT has seen considerable backlog build-up over the past two pandemic years, and from the second half of last year the ACT government has been actively inviting offshore applicants. In the short term, things may improve somewhat — but ACT is still less favourable than other states.

Queensland:

Queensland continues to be less welcoming to local graduates this financial year. That said, looking at the numbers, Queensland’s quota has still increased compared to last year — Subclass 190 grew from around 1,200 to 3,000, more than doubling. On paper, opportunities exist, but the requirements remain demanding, and the work pathway has now been opened to offshore applicants as well. So while Queensland’s quota numbers are up, the difficulty level remains high.

South Australia:

South Australia’s situation this financial year is largely unchanged from previous years — Subclass 190 has increased very slightly and Subclass 491 has decreased very slightly, making it broadly stable overall. SA has consistently maintained a fairly sizeable quota, with a combined 190 and 491 total of close to 6,000 places — a respectable figure compared to other states. SA’s policies this year will most likely remain consistent, with no major changes expected.

Northern Territory:

The Northern Territory’s policies have always been fairly stable. With fewer universities in the NT and no deliberate push to attract international students, the NT’s quota has consistently been maintained at a sensible and proportionate level. While the NT quota has increased modestly, the eligibility threshold has not changed significantly.

Overall:

Looking at the data, there are still many options available across the states in the new financial year, and inter-state competition will remain strong. Most states have not yet issued formal invitations this financial year — see the summary below for the current status of state nomination programmes in each state ▼▼▼

Many people ask: why are Victoria and WA the ‘big winners’ this financial year?A significant part of the reason is their contribution to the Labor Party’s federal election victory — WA in particular played a major role in helping Labor secure a majority in the House of Representatives. Victoria also has a state election approaching, and has been under a Labor government — which may indirectly be a factor in Victoria emerging as a ‘winner’.

Of course, the question most people want answered is:Will the transitional quotas change much later on?

There will indeed be adjustments across states in due course, but based on the data we’re seeing now, the numbers are already very high. Take Victoria, for example — its current Subclass 190 quota is already at 9,000, which is extremely high. Some have speculated it could go above 10,000 — but in our view, that’s unlikely.We believe any post-October budget changes will be minor adjustments, not major shifts.

Of course, some other common questions include: will ACT’s Subclass 190 invite more applicants? Will Tasmania’s Subclass 491 open up further? These remain possibilities.

Going forward, the key things to watch are the Employment Summit in September and the new budget in October. Based on current state nomination quotas and the report cited at the start of this article, it now seems virtually certain that the overall migration programme will increase to somewhere between 180,000 and 200,000 places this financial year.

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Current state nomination status

(Updated: 17 August 2022, afternoon)

New South Wales:The occupation list and specific application requirements will be published soon (applications are not recommended until the new financial year policy is formally announced). No pre-invitations have been issued for this financial year.

Victoria:Victoria announced last week that it is now accepting new financial year nomination applications, with more occupations eligible and applications open to both onshore and offshore applicants. For more details, see:Victoria Opens New Financial Year State Nomination — More Occupations Eligible! Tasmania Updates Transitional Quotas — Subclass 190 Nearly Doubles!

Australian Capital Territory:ACT’s transitional quota for 2022–23 is 800 Subclass 190 places and 1,920 Subclass 491 places, totalling 2,720 places.

For more details, see:ACT State Nomination Update — Quotas Up! Up! Up! Score Reductions Possible! Accountants and Other Traditionally Difficult Occupations, a Fast-Track Opportunity Has Arrived!

Queensland: The main policy directions for this financial year were announced at the information session—primarily expanding eligibility for some local graduates, opening the work pathway to offshore applicants (essentially unchanged for onshore applicants), and reopening Business Innovation stream Subclass 188E.Applications remain closed — they will only open once the state receives its nomination quota. For more details, see:Queensland’s First State Nomination Announcement for This Financial Year! Three Positive Changes: Expanded Local Graduate Eligibility, Reopened Offshore Pathway, Reactivated 188E! State Government Expects to Receive Quota by August!

South Australia:The occupation list and application requirements will be published soon. Applications are currently closed. No pre-invitations have been issued for this financial year.

Tasmania:On 11 August, Tasmania announced its 2022–23 transitional quota: 2,000 Subclass 190 places (up from 1,100 last financial year) and 1,350 Subclass 491 places (down from 2,200).Previously updatedoccupation lists and Critical Role categories,

for full details see:One-Stop Guide to Tasmania’s New State Nomination Policies | Updated Occupation Lists and Critical Role Categories! Complete Criteria for All Streams Released — Applicants Now Placed into Three Priority Tiers!

Western Australia:The occupation list and application requirements have been confirmed and published — great news for local graduates! The first round of pre-invitations has been issued: accountants scoring as low as 80 points were invited, along with engineers, IT professionals, and other disciplines.For more details, see:This State Kicked Off the Financial Year with a Wave of Invitations — Did Accountants Get in at 80 Points?

Northern Territory:The Northern Territory has confirmed receipt of its transitional quota. See:Northern Territory Confirms Receipt of Transitional Quota! All Occupations on the Department List Open This Financial Year — Work Experience Highlighted as Key Factor!

Additionally, the MINT programme has confirmed that all migration-eligible occupations may apply, and the newly established MINT Graduate Pathway is now open for applications.For more details, see:MINT Programme Significantly Expanded for New Financial Year! All Migration Occupations Eligible, Including Finance, IT, Engineering, and Marketing — International Graduates May Also Have a Chance!

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