Budget Preview | Treasurer: Skilled migration will come back, migration levels will recover, the border closure is only temporary, and reopening is expected next year!
Tomorrow night at 7:30pm, next financial year’s Budgetwill be handed down, and migration — heavily affected by the pandemic and closely tied to the economic recovery —is drawing intense attention.
Border reopening planned for 2022
Tomorrow night, the Treasurer’s Budget is expected tobe built on core assumptions about vaccination and infection rates, aiming to reopen international borders in 2022,although this is several months later than what was flagged in last October’s Budget for the current financial year.
In an interview with Australian media, he expressed confidence:“If it’s safe, the border will reopen. And once the border is safely (re)opened, net overseas migration will increase, including skilled migration.” Skilled labour plays a very important role across the whole economy, but Australia won’t jeopardise public safety — or even the economic recovery — by going beyond medical advice.
Closing the border is only temporary
Josh Frydenberg saidhe hopes (net overseas) migration will return to pre-pandemic levels, and believes that, over time, Australia can get back to how things were.“Clearly, net overseas migration has gone negative during this crisis. On Tuesday night you’ll see Treasury’s forecasts for the coming years, but this is a pandemic effect, not a permanent change.”
“I believe in a generous, sustainable migration program that reflects that this is an open, tolerant, diverse country.”
Australia’s economic recovery is currently tracking reasonably well, and the Treasurer acknowledged that the border closure has, in some respects, boosted consumer demand — for instance, forcing Australians to spend their money at home —but he said this isn’t sustainable. Whether the border is closed or open, it’s a pandemic-driven effect, not a permanent structural one.
Prime Minister Morrison also, on Sunday, rejected suggestions that Australia was pursuing a so-called “elimination” strategy on the question of reopening borders, and said there was no “zero cases” target, saying: “When we have Australians returning from overseas, there will always be some (new) cases like this.”
We’ve already set upa 2021–22 Federal Budget live-tracking group,covering before and after the 11 May releasewith every authoritative migration-related update tracked in real time, plus live coverage on the night of release — if you’re interested, add the QR code belowand note: Budget,to request to join the group.
“Whether we’ll see an increase in the financial year’s PR quota is the key question.”
Abul Rizvi, the well-informed former Secretary of the Department of Immigration, said the key test for the government iswhether the Budget includes an increase to the formal Migration Program — what we often refer to as the financial year’s planned PR quota —in order to reach the projections set out in last December’s Population Statement.
Over the past two years, Australia’s planned PR quota has sat at 160,000, and before that it was steady at 190,000. This reduction in the quota — plus the fact that actual grants each year have fallen short of the plan — has been a major source of disappointment for migrants and international students in recent years. There have also been adjustments to how that overall number is allocated, particularly the year-on-year deep cuts to the 189 visa,so both the overall total and the specific allocation adjustments are worth watching closely.
“Skilled migrants and international students should be prioritised for return to Australia”
The Australian Industry Group, which represents employers, warned of skills shortages ranging from software programmers to vets and chefs. Its chief called for increased Budget spending on local apprenticeships (which we should expect to see) and looser rules for bringing in skilled migrants. “The Budget should prioritise education and training, ease the opening-up of permanent and temporary migration, and take real action.”
An NAB executive called for Australia to build more quarantine facilities,ease border restrictions, and restore skilled migration to give a lifeline to businesses under pressure.
Some industries are still struggling, and if Australia eases hard entry restrictions on certain visa types, these industries could see a substantial boost in profits.“I’d like to see all levels of government working together.”
He believes people who can stay in Australia for the long term should be prioritised: “I’m not talking about your two-week holiday. What I’m talking about isenabling skilled migrants and international students to safely return to Australia.”
Hoping the Budget will let us see some light
Before the Budget was released, the ABC interviewed small business owners from industries still struggling, including tourism and the international education/migration sector,and Kirk was among those interviewed — Kirk, who has followed every Budget closely for years (head of Newstars’ Melbourne and Hobart branches, and a MARA-registered migration agent), was also interviewed.
Kirk said this Budget is crucial for rebuilding international students’ confidence in Australia and its appeal to prospective migrants. The past year has been extremely tough for international students: “Whether onshore or offshore, they’ve had to study online for the long term. Those onshore were hit by the pandemic but received very limited economic support, and many had to fight hard to juggle part-time work as well.”
Tightened skilled migration policy — particularly the deep cuts to Subclass 189 Skilled Independent places, and the increasingly fierce competition for state nomination — made their path even harder during the pandemic,“Most of them don’t feel appreciated.” They’ve put in a great deal, including money, without getting the return they wanted.
Kirk said what worries him more is that many onshore international students, for reasons including how difficult the policy settings have become,are leaving Australia for good: “I get farewell messages from students almost every day.”
He hopes to seethe federal government bring skilled migration back to pre-pandemic levels and offer more migration pathways.“Maybe other industries have already seen light at the end of the tunnel — ours is definitely still in the tunnel, and we haven’t seen the light yet,” he said.
See the full report here:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-09/federal-budget-small-business-international-students-borders/100120544
2020 was genuinely tough, and everyone was under a cloud of negativity, but heading into 2021 — and especially the closer we’ve got to the Budget announcement — more and more positive news has emerged.
State nomination quotas increase, the PMSOL expands, and international students get preferential treatment
International students working in tourism and hospitality no longer face the 40-hour work-hour limit even during study periods,and can also apply for the Subclass 408 visa, which allows full-time work, to extend their stay. In addition,the PMSOL list has added the veterinarian occupation, and the government will continue to listen to feedback from employers and state governments to keep adjusting the PMSOL. Also, for some states where this financial year’s state nomination quota wasn’t enough,additional quota has now been topped up as the financial year draws to a close(the usual process is that the state government tells the Federal Government the quota isn’t enough and applies for more, then waits for approval). Specifically:Tasmania’s Subclass 491 quota has increased by 350 places,anyone following Tasmania will know that Subclass 491 has been in serious short supply this financial year — the state government previously said it was nearly exhausted, and the new quota should help ease that somewhat.
South Australia’s Subclass 190 quota has increased by 500 and Subclass 491 by 150, and South Australia’s quota this financial year had been cut substantially compared with last financial year — the state government is now quickly adapting to actual demand.
The Budget is also expected to formally announce a $10 billion investment in major infrastructure projects over 10 years, and a further 12-month extension of the JobTrainer employment training program.
We’ll know tomorrow night
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