For instance, at an event last week the Minister for Immigration indicated that in his view,the 160,000 PR quota should remain unchanged, and the proportion allocated to skilled migrants will be restored to two-thirds(this has already been confirmed internally — it simply cannot be stated officially at this stage, as everyone understands).

Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell, who has closely followed Australian politics for many years, shared some insights about the budget on his programme:

1. The budget forecast for net overseas migration (NOM) in 2022–23 will return to a positive figure — the first time in two financial years that the forecast has turned positive.

In fact,net overseas migration has a far broader impact on Australian society, as it covers not only permanent residents but also temporary visa holders — such as international students and Subclass 485 / Graduate Work visa holders — who remain in Australia for more than 12 months. NOM forecasts and ABS figures for prior financial years are shown in the chart below. During the second half of 2019–20, the effects of COVID-19 began to take hold, with many people returning to their home countries and PR holders leaving Australia due to lockdowns. The figure turned negative in 2020–21 — when borders were essentially closed — meaning far more people departed than arrived.

With 2021–22 not yet over, Andrew Clennell noted that for the NOM figure to return to positive this financial year, the final quarter would need to see an explosive surge,yet the available data suggest that people are in no rush to return to or come to Australia. Since the large-scale border reopening in November last year, approximately one million travellers have arrived — a number that would have been reached in a single week before the pandemic. As a result,what he has heard is that the NOM figure will return to positive, but only slightly above half pre-pandemic levels — well short of 220,000.

2. He also mentioned that as far as he is aware, the PR quota will remain at 160,000, with a greater proportion going to skilled migrants, as skilled migration broadly supports economic recovery through taxation and other contributions.

Throughout the programme, Andrew Clennell consistently used “will” rather than merely offering an opinion — we had a look at his profile, and, well…

As the first budget since the normalisation of international travel, with a steady flow of encouraging policy updates in recent weeks, cautious optimism is entirely reasonable.On the evening of 29 March — the night the budget is announced — Newstars’ four leading MARA-registered migration agents and principals, William, Kirk, Victor, and Simon, will join everyone for alive stream to share more details about the budget, covering topics including but not limited tothe budget and the federal election in May,the many ways they are intertwined, and the most likelymigration reforms.

To join the 2022–23 budget live stream discussion group,

add our consultant and note: Budget

The Department of Home Affairs has quietly updated state quota data to the end of February 2022. A comparison shows it broadly aligns with figures released by individual state governments (the official website also notes thatinformation as at the end of January contained errors, which have now been corrected). This is especially relevant for states that do not publish a detailed invitations summary — such as New South Wales, this provides a useful point of reference.

Comparing the previous official report data with the February 2022 monthly release, we can see —

–NSWSubclass 190 and Subclass 491 invitation data have been significantly revised,and after adjustment, with three months remaining in the financial year, less than 50% of the quota has been used;the state government certainly has a backlog of nomination applications from pre-invited candidates yet to be assessed, and accounting for these, the quota is unlikely to be approaching full utilisation;if the data are accurate, we hope New South Wales will be able to issue further rounds of invitations normally.

–VIC February saw a large volume of Subclass 190 nominations issued — nearly 600 used in a single month — and the Subclass 491 quota has quietly run low,which explains why the state government pre-emptively issued a batch of rejection letters

–QLDis also rapidly drawing down its Subclass 190 quota, with nearly 80% now used(only 37% had been used by the end of January — partly because Queensland also issued 219 nominations in February, second only to Victoria, and partly due to data corrections)

– Tasmania’s Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 data have both been revised, broadly consistent with what the state government released on 7 March

– South Australia’s Subclass 190 utilisation rate has eased slightly, but there remains sufficient quota; Subclass 491 is being drawn down steadily, as the state government noted — make the most of it

– Western Australia’s figure has also been revised down, though it went from over-quota to extremely close to full; best to wait for supplementary quota

With four months remaining in the financial year, if supplementary quota is granted, the state governments will have room to act. Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania have all formally requested additional quota from the Department of Home Affairs,and the Northern Territory — which had been relatively quiet — officially announced this week that it has received an additional 200 Subclass 491 allocations.

A tip from fellow agent ISCAH: they believe all states that have requested additional quota have already received a response from the Department of Home Affairs — so keep a close eye on those state government websites, as some good news is likely coming soon.

The 29 March live streamwill also cover detailed updates, including thestate nomination quota utilisation approaching the end of the financial year,an analysis of which remainingopportunities may open up,anda realistic outlook for the new financial year.

Of course, we are also keeping watch for those who remain stuck overseas for various reasons and cannot enter Australia. Prime Minister Morrison has indicated thatan easing of some international travel entry requirements will be announced shortly, particularly the pre-departure COVID-19 testing requirement for international travellers.

Greens Senator Nick McKim also wrote to the Minister for Immigration today on behalf of those whose Bridging Visa B has expired and who are unable to return,calling for the reinstatement of expired Bridging Visa B arrangements so they can travel freely.Most of these individuals departed on a Bridging Visa B while waiting for a decision on their substantive visa — mainly migration visas — but were stuck overseas without a grant until the Bridging Visa B expired. Now that most visa holders can re-enter Australia, these people are still waiting for their visa to be granted before they can return.

During the 29 March budget live stream,we will also share the latestAustralia entry and China departurefirst-hand updates,covering vaccines, flights, quarantine, and visasand more.

Parent migration has become a pressing concern for voters and permanent residents alike — processing has been painfully slow in recent years. Since late last year, the Department of Home Affairs has offered a number of short-term arrangements to allow families to reunite, but substantive migration processing has seen little progress.Today we have two long-waiting Subclass 864 Contributory Aged Parent visa clients who have been granted — we hope this is a positive signal for processing, but ultimately what matters most is securing a larger quota allocation in the next financial year!

During the 29 March budget live stream, we will sharethe latest parent migration processing updates, as well asfamily reunion entry options suited to different circumstances.

Slow processing is not unique to parent migration — the Minister for Immigration stated last week thatthe Department of Home Affairs is now addressing the backlog of visa applications that built up during the pandemic over the past two years, has been working to clear it over recent months, and intends to continue doing so. To be fair, current visa processing delays have far exceeded any reasonable timeframe — waiting one to two years for a visa decision is unacceptable whether you are onshore or offshore. One applicant with a Subclass 489 still waiting for a grant mentioned she has been waiting 30 months for a visa with a 48-month (4-year) validity period — and then there is the further wait to transition to Subclass 887. The Department’s own data reflects this bottleneck, with the official processing time indicator still showing “We are currently assessing applications submitted before September 2020”,and by the end of January this year, the Subclass 887 backlog had reached 14,685 applications (including primary and secondary applicants). For a period we had several waiting clients who received their grant only after departing Australia, while others received a request for further information while offshore and were then granted after returning — the Department’s approach to Subclass 887 processing has been genuinely unpredictable…

During the 29 March budget live stream, we will sharestate nomination, employer-sponsored nomination/visa, business and investor migration, parent migrationand other migration visa categories’latest processing times and updates— prospective migrants, don’t miss it!