Overview of Australia’s Skilled Migration Quota Adjustments
Friday’s quota allocation landed like a bolt from the blue, reshuffling the skilled categories once again. Here’s a short piece on what I see as the impact.
Subclass 186 — Employer-Sponsored Visa: Quota Changes and Processing Direction
The quota has increased by 14,000+ to 58,000+, while the Subclass 186 backlog sits at 59,000 — which under ideal conditions could be cleared within one financial year, with clear priority given to Subclass 482-to-186 transitions. The two Subclass 186 streams are now moving at roughly the same pace, sitting overall at around June 2024, with priority or regional cases reaching mid-2025. Onshore applicants who have already lodged and are awaiting a decision should see a noticeable speed-up.
Subclass 189 — Skilled Independent Migration: Quota Rebound and Invitation Forecast
The quota has risen to over 21,000. For two earlier years it sat above 30,000, then fell to close to 17,000, so this is a rebound. Processing is currently focused mainly on November and December lodgements, with January cases already underway; there is limited room for processing to accelerate further.
It mainly comes down to invitations. As at the end of February, Subclass 189 had a backlog of 9,922, with 5,200+ places remaining. If the May round sticks with small invitation rounds, the backlog at the end of the financial year will certainly fall below 10,000. Invitations in the new financial year will be a stepped-up version of this year’s; if four rounds are again issued, each round would be 5,000–7,000.
Subclass 190 — State-Nominated Migration: Quota Increase and the Rising Competition
The backlog has been falling steadily this financial year, sitting at around 22,600 by the end of February. With more grant quota still available this year, it could be around 20,000 by the end of the financial year — likely the lowest in several years. After the increase to 35,500 places, the backlog could be cleared in a little over six months; I do miss the days when a Subclass 190 could be granted within a few months. On the other hand, I still hope the invitation quota will increase — otherwise, with Subclass 491 cut sharply, the points-based system will become extremely competitive.
Subclass 491 — Regional Visa: Quota Cuts and Their Long-Term Impact
The regional quota is shared between Subclass 491 and Subclass 494. Even assuming Subclass 494 takes 5,000 of it, Subclass 491 would be left with under 10,000 places. The good news is that as at the end of February the Subclass 491 backlog was under 20,000, with 13,000 places still available; Subclass 491’s invitation quota for this year had 2,000 left by the end of April, meaning the increase in new applications won’t be large. The Subclass 491 backlog isn’t especially big, and there are still plenty of places this year, so I don’t think Subclass 491 processing speed will suddenly drop.
The impact will be felt more over the longer term. With the major quota cuts and the shift toward prioritising onshore applicants, the unfortunate reality is that the regional category has more offshore than onshore applicants, and off a large base: in the 2024–25 financial year there were 13,600 onshore and close to 20,000 offshore, so Subclass 491 (offshore) will take a heavy hit. I increasingly feel the quota reduction may go hand in hand with regional reform; based on earlier news, the points-based system and regional changes are being advanced in parallel, and the major quota cuts now may hint that fewer people will be able to apply for Subclass 491 in future — for example, the much-discussed redefinition of regional areas, which is not good news for Adelaide and Perth.
Family-Category Dependent Visa: Quota Updates and Processing Pace
Parents —
The new projection table is out — please head over and take a look.
Spouse and Children —
Both have small increases. The partner backlog is second only to that for parents, and an increase of 1,000 probably won’t have much impact on the large queue. The 500-place increase for the child visa, however, may bring a more noticeable speed-up.
Let me say it again: for two-step PR pathways such as Subclass 191/801/888/100, it’s the earlier step that counts against the quota — the later step of converting to PR does not.
