Australia’s 2026 New Financial-Year Budget: Migration Places and the PR Backlog Explained
On the evening of 12 May (next Tuesday), Australia releases its new financial-year Budget — it’s hard to believe another year has already gone by. As usual, I’ll talk it through on a livestream, so do come back and register to tune in. I’ll also cover the latest on state nomination and visas, and the moment there’s any news on places, I’ll let everyone know.
The Current Backlog and How Long It Takes to Clear
As is so often the case, migration has once again become a talking point lately. In particular, I think the 425,000 people waiting on PR are worth discussing. After a range of adjustments, Labor has reduced Net Overseas Migration (NOM) through the temporary-visa settings, bringing it down by almost 130,000 to 306,000
But on the permanent-residency side, the number waiting to be granted has risen to 425,000 applications (see the header image)
Based on the 25–26 places, a rough estimate of how long this backlog will take to clear
Subclass 186 – 1.34 years
Subclass 189 – under half a year
Subclass 190 – 1.06 years
Regional – 1.03 years
Partner – 2.4 years
Parent – 1–8 years (broken down, Subclass 143 is 15 years)
The Core Reasons Behind Australia’s Huge Migration Backlog
Why so many?
After comparing the various figures (Figures 1–2), the core reason is the rapid increase in the Subclass 186 and partner categories over the past three years
Looking from the 22–23 financial year onwards, Subclass 189/190/491/494 have all been declining. You can go back through my monthly FOI data: the backlog in the three main (points-tested) categories, along with Subclass 191, is falling, and reduced invitation numbers deserve a fair share of the credit. The three main categories run on a passive invitation system, so the government can control the number of applications lodged through the invitations it issues
But the partner and Subclass 186 categories can’t be managed that way. Partner is easy to understand: even setting aside any grand talk of humanitarian principle, the sponsor is a PR holder or a citizen — voters, or future voters, that the government doesn’t dare upset. Subclass 186 is Labor’s favourite child; its allocation is already number one among the skilled categories. Subclass 482, which feeds into it, is something the government keeps saying it supports and prioritises, and it’s backed by businesses and employers — the government probably neither wants to nor dares to restrict it, and on the contrary keeps encouraging it through policy
Parent migration also can’t have new applications restricted, and it has long held the number-one share of the backlog. Yet over the past three years the backlog has grown by only 16,000, so the parent category is an old problem, not one that has only appeared in recent years
Can the New Financial Year Expand Migration Places? Opening the Tap, and the State of Policy Reform
So, since the inflow can’t be effectively stemmed, do we just open the tap instead?
The Australian Chamber of Commerce is calling for and pushing to increase places, particularly skilled migration places, and the Migration Institute is pushing for the new financial year to lift them to 200,000 places (Figure 3)
What’s described above is the approach in theory, but the migration-places question isn’t a maths problem — it’s leaning more and more towards being a political one. On one side, voters worry about the pressure on housing and infrastructure; on the other, there’s the visa backlog. So realistically, I think it would be a good outcome if places simply aren’t cut in the new financial year — or, to be a little bolder, if there were a small increase for the Subclass 186 and partner categories; for parent and skilled, I wouldn’t dare hope. Alternatively, if the partner category really were left uncapped, that could free up quite a few places
That said, Labor previously mentioned a multi-year plan, and it now looks like they’ve gone off the idea (Figure 2) — after tinkering with it, they found that locking in multiple years at once really is far too hard to settle. The points-system reform and some sort of regional reform were also in full swing earlier, and all the consultation feedback that needed gathering has been gathered; but it’s now been stalled for a long time, still stuck at the federal step
