The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released population figures for the 12 months to September 2022, and Australia’s net overseas migration has hit a record high.
ABS data runs about six months behind, so the figures released this March cover the year to last September. Australia’s borders fully reopened in February 2022. If overseas migration was still gathering pace at the previous release (the year to June), by Septemberthere had been enough time for overseas migration to recover in full，and the data bears this out.
Australia’s net overseas migration
hits a record quarterly high
A quick reminder, once again, of what net overseas migration (NOM) actually measures
It covers not only permanent residents and new PRs, but also the large number of people holding temporary visas that let them live in Australia for 12 months or longer，subclasses 500/485/482/870/462 and the likeare all included
If net overseas migration is positive, more people are arriving than leaving; a negative figure means the reverse. It is normally positive — except in extreme circumstances such as the pandemic border closures, when net overseas migration turned negative for several years running.
[Overseas arrivals up 230.4%]
For the year to 30 September 2022, net overseas migration was 303,670 — an increase of 359,800 on the year to 30 September 2021. Of that, overseas arrivals were 536,900, more than tripling year on year！
[Overseas departures remain extremely low]
For the July–September 2022 quarter, net overseas migration did more than simply return to pre-pandemic levels — it reached 106,000, the highest figure since 1982!And as you can see, net overseas migration in the previous quarter was only 64,000, a relatively low figure.It rebounded sharply the very next quarter. Besides the growing number of arrivals as the borders reopened, this owes a great deal to departure numbers staying persistently low.
As the chart below clearly shows, just before the pandemic departureshad topped 110,000, whereas in the post-pandemic period the figure has largely held at 40,000–50,000.
This should be directly linked to visa and migration policy
– Because of longer and more varied visa options such as the Subclass 485 and 408, many people can stay in Australia with ease
– Because of better migration policy and larger migration quotas, people feel more optimistic about their migration prospects. Whether they have been persevering for a while or are about to join the queue, they are more willing to stay in Australia and keep trying. In fact, over the past six months or so, plenty of people — whether through state nomination or the Subclass 189 — have finally got the outcome they hoped for.
–A better job market — since 2022, labour shortages across every Australian industry have become a top priority for the new government to address, which we won’t labour here
– And of course there is the added boost of faster visa grants, which we expect will show up even more clearly in the next set of figures.
Queensland
NSW
one the fastest, one the largest
Across the states, Queensland recorded the fastest overall population growth, while NSW had the largest net overseas migration
Queensland had a population growth rate of 2.2%. Interestingly, Queensland does not rely chiefly on overseas migration, but on interstate migration. Helped along by large numbers of former NSW and Victoria residents and a smaller share from the ACT and Northern Territory, Queensland’s net interstate migration inflow was 46,623, on top of net overseas migration that also exceeded 40,000. It seems that, wherever people come from, they like somewhere warm with affordable housing — after all, few enjoy winter arriving in April, or spending half an hour hunting for a parking spot.
Newcomers still tend to favour NSW (Sydney) and Victoria (Melbourne) as their first port of call, with net overseas migration inflows of around 100,000 each.
If you want to migrate quickly and add to Australia’s population growth, some of the better pathways right now are
–NSW / Victoria Subclass 190
Suitable for common occupations such as accounting, IT, engineering, marketing, management and finance
Permanent residency in one step; settle in Sydney/Melbourne
but the points and work-experience requirements are a little higher
– NSW Subclass 491 RDA pathway
Suitable for occupations such as finance, marketing, management and engineering
No waiting passively for an invitation — direct, fast invitations
Two-step path to permanent residency; meeting the minimum EOI points requirement gives you a chance to be invited
Northern Territory Subclass 491
Recently added eligible occupations and eased the work-experience requirements, and most importantly there are still plenty of places, with just one year of relevant work experience needed to apply
Canberra Subclass 491
Although it requires three years of relevant work experience, its strength is steady invitations — hundreds issued to offshore applicants each round — which makes it an attractive option in its own right.
For more detail, see：A rundown of the genuinely good skilled-migration pathways for offshore applicants to Australia: steady invitations, plenty of quota places, and remarkably low entry requirements!
You’re also welcome to add our consultant directly for advice
Australia’s overall population growth
may soon break records — but…
On the back of the strong rebound in overseas migration, Australia’s overall population growth figures are looking increasingly impressive, with the latest growth rate reaching 1.6%.
Although it had not yet hit record territory as at last September, anyone paying attention knows what the population inflow — led by international students — has looked like since early this year. The next record high should not be far off.
Commentators argue that, whether or not you support this explosive growth, with large numbers of migrants — especially the far greater volume of temporary-visa holders — arriving in or remaining in Australia, the government will now need to shift its focus to managing and steering that growth as well as it can.
Here, special mention must go to housing。
A single major policy oversight can make life needlessly expensive, and Australia’s migration and housing policies clearly operate independently of one another. So Australia can increase migrant numbers without supplying an adequate level of housing stock, and then everyone is left speechless watching rental prices in supply-strapped cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra…
Let’s hope
this isn’t the start of yet another cycle
We still remember how, during the pandemic, many people warned the government not to be overconfident or complacent in assuming that international students and skilled migrants simply had to choose Australia — there are plenty of competitors worldwide. After a series of policies from the new government, the data now tells us that Australia really does hold significant advantages。
However, while Australia has shown it can grow its population rapidly through overseas migration, it has yet to show that it can successfully manage a rapidly growing population。
After all, the last time the former government went to great lengths to draw migrants and international students to regional areas (the 489 becoming the 491, and the 187 becoming the 494), local resentment of migrants — over housing, infrastructure and jobs — reached its peak.
Past articles worth a look
Direct, fast invitations for offshore engineering, advertising, design, finance and more — this NSW pathway has suddenly taken off!
Those who rushed to lodge late last year are seeing their road to PR steadily “bear fruit”
The complete 2023 guide to Australia’s immigration medical examination! What does it involve, and what tips should you keep in mind!
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