If a Subclass 189 round runs in March 2026, what scores might give early childhood teachers a chance?

If Subclass 189 invitations are issued in March 2026, we expect early childhood teachers with 90 points or more to be better placed, with very few invitations at 85. Their backlog at 85 points or more exceeds 1.3k, while the remaining financial-year allocation is fewer than 200 at most.

February 2026 Subclass 189 backlog and teacher score outlook

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February 2026 Australian EOI Data: 189 Backlogs and Score Forecasts by Occupation — image 1

Late-February EOI data update — let’s take a look at the 189 backlog for the “three treasures” (early-childhood teaching, nursing, social work) plus secondary-school teaching — the four major occupations — and a handful of other in-demand fields. We’ll also factor in Wednesday morning’s NSW release of the March round of Subclass 190 invitations — let’s look at them together.

NSW 190 — the 4 March round

Any even slightly popular occupation now needs roughly 90 points to land a NSW 190 invitation. The occupations we still see in the 80-point range are almost entirely trades or health-related roles.

NSW Subclass 190 invitation occupations and scores for 4 March 2026

Now let’s look at Subclass 189 —

For the remaining 189 quota this financial year, see our earlier article:Calculation edition | How many 189 invitations are left per occupation this financial year. Optimistically, there is still room for one more 189 round this financial year.

Let’s go through the in-demand occupations one by one.

Early-Childhood Teachers:As of the end of February, the early-childhood-teacher backlog at 85 points and above has already exceeded 1,300, with the 85+ backlog growing by nearly 300 in a single month. The remaining early-childhood-teaching quota ceiling for the current financial year is under 200, so if a March round is issued, 90 points and above is the safe zone and only a handful of 85-point invitations are likely. If invitations are pushed out by several more months, 90 points will be the minimum to realistically land an early-childhood-teaching invitation.

Early childhood teacher Subclass 189 EOI score backlog at February 2026

Lower-scoring early-childhood teachers should keep an eye on the less competitive states — Tasmania, for instance, does not rank purely on EOI points, especially given that NSW required 90+5 for early-childhood teachers this week and Victoria this year has almost exclusively invited applicants with local work experience.If you are unwilling to move to a very remote area, Western Australia is probably the best remaining option — in the February round we had a client invited on 75+5, and although that still involved a wait, it is worth considering for applicants who simply cannot push their score higher.

Nursing:The backlog remains large as ever, and the monthly growth is striking. But while the pool is big, each round also issues a lot. According to the Department’s programme, there are more than 10,000 189 places for nursing in FY2025-26, with roughly 6,000 still on the ceiling. That said, the next 189 round is unlikely to issue very many overall, so we expect 80 points to be safe for nursing and 75 points to have a realistic shot.

Social Workers:The picture is still reasonably healthy — the 75-point-plus backlog is around 600, against a remaining quota ceiling of 300+. Next round, 80 points is the most likely cut-off for an invitation.

Social worker Subclass 189 EOI score backlog

Secondary-School Teachers:The shortfall in secondary-school teaching is large — more than 2,200 places remain and the total pool backlog does not even fill the quota. Even so, secondary teaching is becoming competitive too: more than 100 candidates at 85+ and over 800 at 75+. Over

all, 80 points should be safe for the next round and 75 points also has a reasonable chance of being invited.

Secondary school teacher Subclass 189 EOI score backlog

Civil Engineers:The backlog is now nearly level with accounting — the hardest category — and the higher-point bands are getting heavier.

Civil engineer Subclass 189 EOI score backlog

Civil Engineering Draftspersons / Technicians:While both of these sit in occupations without a dedicated quota, accounting is effectively out of the running, but civil engineers can consider using their work experience to pursue a skills assessment under ANZSCO 3122 (draftsperson or technician). The allocation is small, but by our calculations actual invitations issued under 3122 have already exceeded the stated quota. If the Department keeps inviting, 90 or even 85 points still have a chance.

Civil engineering draftsperson and technician Subclass 189 EOI score backlog

Now for the blue-collar trades —

Carpenters: 65+ backlog is close to 600, growing by 100+ per month, and the 189 quota has already been over-allocated.

Painters: 65+ backlog is nearly 800 — also over-allocated.

Tradies remain a favourite of both 189 and the state streams. For anyone in IT or accounting who has not yet graduated, or has only a bachelor degree, and is struggling to find a migration pathway, a fast-track trades course is worth considering.

Carpenter and painter Subclass 189 EOI backlog

Overall, with very little 189 quota left, the next round is likely to be small. Clients in NSW should also look at other states — if an opportunity arises, relocating is worth it. We hope everyone lands their visa soon, and we hope to see a fresh round of 189 invitations in March!