The FY26-27 permanent residency quota allocation has come with numerous adjustments. A couple of days ago we used the new quotas to work out the new waiting times for parent migration — see the details here: lodging your parent migration application one month later now means waiting an extra year… But the changes and adjustments are actually far greater for skilled migration — it amounts to a major shake-up.
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Today we’ll analyse how the quota changes affect processing.
Increased once again. This category has gradually grown from 30,000+ when Labor first took office to 58,000+ this year, which clearly shows that this government’s support for employer sponsorship is both stable and long-term. The Subclass 186 backlog stands at 59,000, which in an ideal scenario could be cleared within a single financial year.
The two Subclass 186 streams are now moving at roughly the same pace, sitting overall at around June 2024, with priority occupations or positions, and regional cases, reaching mid-2025.
The Department of Home Affairs website makes clear that priority will be given to Subclass 482-to-186 transitions. Over the past two financial years, around 70% of Subclass 186 applicants were onshore (by place of lodgement), and applicants who have already lodged, are in processing and are onshore are expected to see a marked speed-up. But opportunity waits for no one: the Subclass 482 threshold is low, requiring only one year of work experience and with no quota cap, so applicants already employed within Australia should still look into the employer-sponsored pathway as early as possible — opportunity waits for no one.
Increased to over 21,000. For two prior years it was 30,000+, then fell to nearly 17,000, so the new financial year amounts to a rebound. Processing is currently working mainly through November and December applications, with January’s already under way, and there is little room for processing to accelerate further.
So it mainly comes down to invitations. By the end of February, Subclass 189 had a backlog of 9,922, with 5,200+ places remaining. If the Department sticks with a ‘small round’ in the May round, the year-end backlog will certainly fall below 10,000. The new financial year’s invitations will be a beefed-up version of this year’s — if it still issues four rounds, that’s 5,000-7,000 per round.
With less than two weeks of May remaining, there has still been no word on invitations. There is also a small chance the Department could ‘shift’ the upside of the new financial year’s grant quota into this financial year’s May round, given that grants for those invited in this round will essentially draw on the new financial year’s quota anyway.
This financial year’s backlog has been falling steadily, sitting at around 22,600 by the end of February. There is still ample grant quota left this year, and from January through to recent weeks the number of Subclass 190 grants has not eased off, with the year-end figure expected to be around 20,000 — likely a multi-year low. With the quota lifted to 35,500, the backlog could be cleared in a little over six months. That said, we still hope the increase in grant quota translates into an increase in invitation quota; otherwise, with Subclass 491 sharply reduced, the points-based system will only become more competitive.
The regional category quota is shared between Subclass 491 and Subclass 494. Even assuming Subclass 494 takes 5,000, that leaves Subclass 491 with under 10,000 places. The good news is that Subclass 491’s backlog is currently even healthier than Subclass 190’s — under 20,000 at the end of February, with 13,000 places still available. By the end of April, Subclass 491’s invitation quota for this year had only 2,000 left, meaning there won’t be much growth in new applications for the rest of this financial year.
Given that Subclass 491’s backlog isn’t particularly large and there’s still a fair amount of quota left this year, we believe Subclass 491 processing speed won’t suddenly drop off.
So the impact will be felt over the longer term. Under the sharp quota cuts and the shift towards prioritising onshore applicants, the unfortunate fact is that the regional category has more offshore than onshore applicants, on a large base: in FY24-25 there were 13,600 onshore and nearly 20,000 offshore. Offshore Subclass 491 invitations will take a heavy, longer-lasting hit. A reduction in each state’s Subclass 491 invitation quota appears inevitable, and once quotas drop, state governments will have to adjust their Subclass 491 pathways — for example, by raising thresholds and narrowing eligibility.
Offshore applicants should consider a PLAN B as soon as possible — for example, the MINT Stream: With the new financial year’s migration quota prioritising onshore applicants | An ultra-scarce permanent residency opportunity for offshore applicants — the MINT programme. Newstars has officially become a Panel Agent, and places are about to be snapped up!
Beyond the changes in the numbers, this may also be aligned with reform of regional migration. According to earlier reports, the points-based system and regional changes are being advanced in tandem, and the sharp quota cuts now may hint that fewer people will be able to apply for Subclass 491 in future — for instance, through the much-discussed redefinition of regional areas, which is not good news for Adelaide and Perth.
In terms of numbers, both have seen only modest increases. The partner backlog is second only to parent migration, and a backlog of 1,000 probably won’t have much impact on processing speed for such a large queue. By contrast, the increase of 500 places for child visas may bring a more noticeable real-world speed-up.
A quick refresher once more: what has now been released is the new financial year’s PR grant quota. State nomination quotas won’t be announced until at least 1 July — and realistically perhaps not until August or September. For two-step PR pathways such as Subclass 491-191 / 820-801 / 188-888 / 309-100, the quota is consumed at the first stage; the later stage of transitioning to PR is not counted again. So if you already hold a Subclass 491/820/188/309, you are in theory unaffected by this quota adjustment.
