The first month of the new financial year is drawing to a close, and the summary figures from the previous financial year are now coming through. We have obtained data for the popular skilled-migration categories Subclass 189 + 190 + 491 + 191 + 887 visas, covering full-year visa grants for FY22-23 as well as the backlog as at 30 June.

The bottom line first:

– Both Subclass 190 and 189 exceeded their quotas

– The Regional quota (mainly Subclass 491) was probably not fully used up

– The Subclass 190 and 491 backlogs each sit at more than 46,000, which will affect processing and the likelihood of the floodgates opening this financial year

– Subclass 887 has aggressively cleared its backlog, all but emptying the queue

– Subclass 191 recorded no grants in FY22-23, with the backlog now approaching 1,000

FY22-23 grants

189actually granted 32,494, nearly 400 over quota

190actually granted 31,323, 323 over quota

491actually granted 23,019, leaving 10,981 of the Regional quota, because the Regional category also includes Subclass 494, and based on previous financial years it will use a few thousand of the quota, so the wastage will not be as high as 10,000. That said, unless Subclass 494 suddenly surges, the Regional category is likely to leave a small portion of the quota unused

Grants for skilled-migration visas

–First, look at the grant ceiling. Unlike temporary visas such as Subclass 500/408/600, permanent migration visas cannot be granted at will – they are not issued in the hundreds of thousands each financial year

–Next, look at processing speed – that is, how the case-officer teams organise their workload and how proactive they are. The measures introduced since the Labor government took office, and their results, show a marked improvement: within the limits of the quota, they have done their best.

The visa backlog carried over from FY22-23

Because skilled-migration grants are capped each financial year, the large volume of applications lodged after the wave of skilled invitations in the previous financial year could not all be processed within quota, leaving a substantial backlog at year-end

Just look at the backlog as at 30 June 2023 – in other words, the end-of-financial-year backlog.

Subclass 887 and 191 grants do not draw on the quota, because the quota was already used when the Subclass 489/491 visas were granted; Subclass 489 numbers are now very small, so we will set them aside.

It would take 1.5 financial years to clear the current Subclass 190 and 491 backlogs…

So focusing on Subclass 189, 491 and 190: applications not yet finalised by 30 June will need to draw on the FY23-24 grant quota (or even later financial years), and you will find that:the flood of invitations in FY22-23 has very seriously pre-committed the grant quota.

Subclass 190 is the least encouraging: even after the existing backlog uses up the entire FY23-24 quota, there remains a gap of nearly 20,000. If we assume the FY24-25 quota stays at around 30,000, that means it would consume about 60%

Subclass 491 is not much better: even after the existing backlog uses up the entire FY23-24 quota, there remains a gap of about 14,000. If we again assume the FY24-25 quota stays at around 30,000, that means it would consume about 40% of the following financial year’s quota – and that is assuming the entire Regional quota goes to Subclass 491.

Subclass 189 is slightly better: against the FY23-24 quota, the existing backlog leaves a surplus of just under 2,000

Year-end backlog comparison: FY21-22 vs FY22-23

Impact on visa processing:

In the first month of the new financial year the Department quickly resumed grants across several major categories, in considerable numbers; Subclass 190/491/189 have all advanced to applications lodged in early 2023 – a good sign that the momentum has been maintained.

The main concern now is that the quota cannot match the backlog, which will mean some applications wait longer to be granted.The quota caps how many visas can be granted each financial year – something no amount of round-the-clock work by case officers can overcome. With 46,000 for Subclass 491 and nearly 50,000 for Subclass 190, who will make up the roughly 30,000 to be granted this financial year, and who will be left for processing next financial year?

One possibility is a substantial increase in the grant quota, but with 190,000 places already on the table, we conservatively view this as unlikely.

Impact on invitations:

It will be hard for Subclass 190 and 491 quotas and invitations this financial year to better FY22-23. The odds of a single flood-style round issuing tens of thousands of invitations will fall.

The relationship between the grant quota and the invitation quota is fluid:

the grant quota does not determine the invitation quota one-for-one, because visa applications lodged after being invited this financial year, if not finalised, can draw on the grant quota of the next financial year or even the one after that

But the grant quota is the basis for the invitation quota: when the Commonwealth sets the invitation quota it takes into account how many applications in that category remain in the backlog.

Here is an analogy to make it easier to understand:

In week one you have 8 tasks to complete (the backlog of visa applications); by the weekend you find 6 are left to do later.

In week two your boss assigns you another 10 tasks (the backlog of visa applications); this week you complete 2, which means that by the end of this week you still have 14 tasks left to do later.

In week three your boss wants to launch a new plan (the new financial year’s state-nomination invitations), but he takes a look and sees you still have 14 tasks backed up and unfinished, with only 2 completed each week, so it may take many more weeks to finish them all.

The new plan will not necessarily be shelved just because you have 14 tasks piled up, but the boss may well consider that piling a large amount of new work on top would raise questions of efficiency and capacity, and so be more cautious about the workload of the new project.

Subclass 191 applications lodged approaching 1,000

Subclass 191, which only opened for applications last November, had already received 920 applications by 30 June this year.

Unfortunately, not a single one was granted in the previous financial year

Encouragingly, this week appears to have brought the first grant – see here for details: The web’s first-ever Subclass 191 transition grant surfaces today!? Plus ICT/engineering/accounting applicants invited and granted Subclass 491 on raw scores of 60-70!

Subclass 887 essentially cleared

Four figures sum up the Subclass 887 picture for the previous financial year

In January 2023 there were still 19,373 in the backlog

In February and March 2023 nearly 16,000 applications were processed at a furious pace

By the end of June 2023 only 1,636 applications were awaiting processing

After the frantic February and March, Subclass 887 processing continued at 500-1,000 a month – not for want of willingness, but because there simply were not that many applications left to process.

Is it this visa backlog that has the Commonwealth dithering?

Generally, absent a change of government or a major shift in the grant quota, state-nomination quotas are announced fairly promptly.

The FY23-24 quota has still not been announced – could it be that the Commonwealth and state governments are caught in two minds? State-nomination quotas work like this: the states first request a number, and the Commonwealth then weighs everything up and approves the final figure.The states submitted their requested numbers in the previous financial year; they could not have known the backlog figures in advance. Is the Commonwealth now torn, weighing the requested numbers against the backlog?

Of course, it is 100% certain that there will be quotas for state nomination and Subclass 189 this financial year, and that invitations will continue to be issued.

We are not expecting a pleasant surprise – we just hope it is not a nasty shock.

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