Let’s start by usingan investor’s lensto look atAustralian skilled migration. I’d say Australian skilled migration isa case of leveraging a small stake for a big return, well suited to an underdog looking for a comeback.
A relatively small outlay can unlock Australia’s generous welfare
This migration pathwayrequires no assets, no shareholding and no investment(other than the Northern Territory’s MINT program — see:Great news! Northern Territory MINT Program — Newstars officially becomes a Panel Agent ),and looks only at the applicant’s qualifications, English and work experience. In terms of return on investment,putting in a small outlay to unlock Australia’s generous welfare is a solid investment.
Even for people who haven’t yet worked out their future life path, Australia is at least a fallback option —few would say no to grabbing that option now, while conditions are right.
The problem is that this option isn’t easy to secure right now, with processing stalled because of COVID-19.
Stalled by the pandemic, but…
Even the fast invitation-and-processing track from 2020GTIwas also suspended for a while (for the latest on GTI, see:This PR category resumes offshore grants! Get your green card in 2 months — sounds good, right? Both offshore and onshore applications welcome!).
The invitation letter we received last week from an offshore applicant was the first GTI invitation for an offshore applicant in almost 3 months.In our most recent conversation with the Department on GTI, the official processing timeframe they gave was still EOIs submitted in October 2020,which matches the earliest EOI we currently have on file that’s still awaiting an outcome. This, too, is tied to the COVID-19 situation within Australia.
We’ve recently learned from Australian local media that Prime Minister Morrison has been speaking out repeatedly and pressuring state premiers to get vaccination done, requiring every state to open its borders once vaccination reaches 70%, and once 80% of the eligible population is fully vaccinated,Australia will begin reopening its national border in stages.
After going through the second wave, attitudes among people in Australia have gradually shifted — from the earlier approach of lockdowns plus chasing zero cases,to the current approach of getting vaccinated as fast as possible plus gradually easing restrictions. A recent poll found that62% of respondents in Australia want the country to put together a nationwide plan to ease restrictions once vaccination hits the target rate,and while support for vaccination among Australian residents keeps growing, many believe the country won’t return to a zero-case state, with 54% saying it’s unlikely Australia can ever again achieve “complete suppression” of virus transmission.
Since Australia announced its border-closure policy in March 2020, most offshore temporary visa holders have been unable to enter, including large numbers of international students, work visa holders, and temporary green-card-track (489/491) holders. Looking at the Australian Government’s recent statements, it has essentially dropped the “zero cases” policy in favour of focusing more on the vaccination rate. Reading between the lines of all this,we can venture a bold guess at the stages of Australia’s border reopening:
Stage One: reopening of state borders within Australia and a small-scale reopening of the national border
Expected timing: around late 2021
As at 8 September 2021 (data for the eligible population aged 16 and over),Australia had administered more than 21.5 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, with 38.75% of the eligible population having had both doses.
Based on the average rate over the past 7 days,the chart below shows how many days each state and territory needs to reach 70% and 80% double-dose coverage.In terms of speed toward reaching the 80% mark,Canberrais fastest, expected to get there by late October;NSW and Tasmaniaboth by early November;Victoria and the Northern Territoryexpected by late November;the other states, broadly by early December,will get there too.
Each state’s first-dose and double-dose coverage rates are shown in the chart below,with NSW, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and Canberraall already past 40% for double-dose coverage, and Canberra and Tasmania closing in on 50%.
Data above sourced from The Guardian
National Cabinet has reached consensus that state borders will reopen once vaccination hits 70-80%, and Prime Minister Morrison again pressed the states this week that, once vaccination targets are met, all states should reopen their borders to each other around Christmas, achieving domestic reopening for the most part.and once 80% coverage is reached there’s a good chance the national border can open too — whichever state gets there first can open first, without waiting for the rest. The fastest-vaccinating state right now,NSW, has already had its premier say he’s willing to lead the way and trial opening the border first, saying: “I want to see as many Australians as possible, right across the country, and those overseas, join their loved ones in Australia for a happy Christmas.”
Stage Two: allowing more international students to enter; processing begins on the backlog of offshore skilled visas
Expected timing: starting early 2022
Australian Education Minister Alan Tudge has said thenext milestone we need to reach is 70% of the eligible population being fully vaccinated— this will move us into a transition phase where, subject to quarantine arrangements and capacity,we’ll be able to let more student visa holders enter.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg confirmed via video/phone link at an event held by the Australian National University on 6 September that:once the population aged 16 and over in Australia reaches the 70% and 80% vaccination targets, there’ll be a good chance to open the international border and let more international students come back to Australia.
Australia announced today thatit will trial an international vaccine passport in October, in preparation for speeding up the shift from hotel quarantine to home quarantine,see today’s second article for the details.
Stage Three: all states open the application pathway for offshore skilled migration
Expected timing: after the new financial year in July 2022
Australia’s state-nominated skilled migration runs on an EOI points-based invitation system, with the application process mainly involving three stages:
first, complete the skills assessment;
then submit an EOI application and receive a state nomination invitation;
finally, lodge the federal visa application.
The first step in Australian skilled migration, and one of its most crucial requirements, isthe skills assessment. The skills assessment is a step that can’t be waived in Australian skilled migration — whether it succeeds or fails determines whether you can go on to lodge a skilled migration application, and if it fails you could well lose your chance to migrate to Australia. Although state and federal visas haven’t opened for lodgement during the pandemic,the first step — the skills assessment — has remained open for application throughout,and importantly, the assessment result carries a 2-3 year validity period (VETASSESS and Engineers Australia assessments are valid for 3 years, ACS and IML assessments for 2 years). Likewise,sitting the required English test during the preparation period(IELTS Academic/General, PTE Academic, TOEFL iBT, CAE, etc.), used for federal migration application recognition,is also valid for 3 years.
Australia can’t keep being “stubborn” for much longer…
Today the COVID-19 pandemic has affected countries around the world to varying degrees in every respect, and it’s changing Australia too. For example, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data,in May 2021 Australia recorded more than 100,000 departures, the highest monthly figure since the pandemic began.
But as a traditional country of migration, migration has always been one of Australia’s national policies, and the Australian Government sets its annual migration quota plan each year based on economic conditions, the job market, family and social structure, and other factors. Recently, to help solve local employers’ severe labour shortages, the government firstrelaxed the work-hour limits for international students studying in Australia across a number of industries,and, two weeks ago, announced that from 21 Septemberit will roll out a new agriculture visa,available to workers in agriculture, fishing, forestry and meat processing, stating that anyone willing to work in these industries for more than 3 years would have the chance to obtain Australian permanent residency.
Our prediction is that, possibly…
July 2022 may bring something like a genuine amnesty for skilled migration applicants,which could show up as a larger round of Subclass 189 invitations and another increase in state nomination invitation quotas, alongside a significant drop in difficulty.
But by then a genuinely awkward problem could arise —namely that a large number of offshore skilled migration applicants will have let their English results and skills assessments lapse, or won’t have prepared them yet,if you don’t believe it, let’s wait and see.
As the saying goes, “opportunity always favours the prepared”,next year is very likely to bring offshore skilled migration applicants an opportunity not seen in years.If applicants can complete the first-step skills assessment and get the required English score before the reopening, they’ll be in a much stronger position when it happens.
Migration, really, is just like investing — it takes a bit of contrarian thinking and foresight: don’t go where the crowd is. Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful —the moment everyone else gives up is exactly the moment success is easiest to come by. That way, when money falls from the sky, we’ll be the ones standing there with a basin to catch it.
Below, we set out a concrete action plan:
If it were me, I’d break this project down into 4 stages:
1. Planning stage:Plan during 07-09/2021,consult a migration adviser, and choose the occupation for your skills assessment based on the pre-pandemic (2019) state occupation lists and requirements
2. Implementation stage:2021/09-2022/07prepare the skills assessment and English test at the same time
3. Push stage:07-08/2022,submit all state nomination applications
4. Harvest stage:09-10/2022,receive state nomination and lodge the federal visa
As the old saying goes, choice always matters more than effort! The difficulty with Australian skilled migration is that you’re always aiming at a moving target — sound planning is what gives you a sharper sight.
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Previous articles worth reading
PTE officially announces: overall test time shortened, online testing is coming!
The complete migration planning guide for civil/mechanical/electronic/electrical and other engineering fields!
Vaccination hits 80%, opening up to let more international students return to Australia — is NSW keen to lead the trial?
Early childhood educators/chefs can apply for Victorian state nomination! The ACT adds nearly 30 occupations! NSW is set to issue invitations!
Migration information-sharing and Q&A group
Step 1: press and hold to add our consultant
Step 2: after adding, please
A visa that looks simple but is actually full of traps!Click “Original link”, international students should save this round-up of pitfalls to avoid!
