Over the past week or two, the news has been dominated by border reopening announcements and the new Subclass 485 visa, but what about those stillwaiting for their visa grant? What about onshore applicants holding bridging visas who have been waiting endlessly? Or those offshore waiting for their PR or near-PR visa to be granted before they can re-enter? Entering the new financial year, the rate of visa grants has once again left many feeling resigned. Today we bring you some new data — while granted visas remain few and far between, at least we’re no longer completely in the dark. Our focus is on190/491/189/489the four most popular skilled migration visa subclasses for international students.

***There is a time lag between visa applications and invitations — not all lodgements in a given financial year necessarily correspond to invitations received in the same financial year.

***If images are unclear, click to enlarge and view the original.

*Primary applicants only; 2021–22 financial year data covers the first two months.

Subclass 190 visa — onshore:In the 2020–21 financial year, average monthly new lodgements were approximately 780,while the average for the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year was 1,058 per month.

Subclass 491 visa— onshore:In the 2020–21 financial year, average monthly new lodgements were approximately 612,while the average for the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year was 791 per month.

The Subclass 489 has been replaced by the Subclass 491, so new lodgements are now zero. With the border closed, offshore invitations are extremely scarce — the few that do exist are mostly Subclass 491.

The chart below shows new visa lodgements from January to August 2021,as lodgements only occur after an invitation is received,so the new lodgement figures for the 190 and 491 clearly show how frantically state governments worked at the end of the financial year,as most state governments were keen not to waste their quota — and indeed very little was wasted.

At the start of the new financial year, state governments quickly announced their policies and quotas, and most issued invitations in quick succession,but the Department’s processing… well…

*Primary applicants only; 2021–22 financial year data covers the first two months.

Subclass 190 visa — onshore:In the 2020–21 financial year, average monthly finalisations were approximately 671; for the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year, the average was 592 per month.

Subclass 491 visa — onshore:In the 2020–21 financial year, the monthly averagefinalisation countwas approximately 305; for the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year, the average was 378 per month.

Subclass 189 visa — onshore:In the 2020–21 financial year, the monthly averagefinalisation countwas approximately 333; for the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year, the average was 316 per month.
Subclass 489 visa — onshore:20In the 20–21 financial year, the monthly averagefinalisation countwas approximately 18.3; for the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year, the average was 21 per month.

Again due to the border closure, the number of offshore finalisations is extremely low — hopefully things will pick up once the border reopens.

*Primary applicants only; January to August 2021.

Subclass 190 visa — onshore:If the drop in grant numbers in the new financial year isn’t apparent from the averages alone, looking at individual months tells the story — in the 2020–21 financial year,the last four months recorded individual monthly grants of 1,145 / 921 / 4,594 / 1,350,,while the first two months of the 2021–22 financial year saw 667 and 465 grants respectively.

Subclass 491 visa — onshore:Compared to the 190, numbers are significantly lower overall,with 440 being the highest single-month grant figure, before dropping back to 300 the following month.

Subclass 189 visa — onshore:A broadly staircase-style decline: grants were still 500–700 per month from March to May, before falling to around 200–300 per month from June to August.

The Subclass 489 and all offshore figures are in the tens, or even single digits…

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*Primary applicants only; January to August 2021.

Subclass 190 visa — onshore:From approximately 4,800 in January to 6,700 in August.

Subclass 190 visa — offshore:From approximately 2,100 in January to under 2,000 in August — some were processed, but the main reason is that with almost no offshore invitations, there were virtually no new offshore lodgements either.

Subclass 491 visa — onshore:From approximately 2,700 in January to 6,300 in August, leaving us wondering exactly where the Department’s own stated priority processing for onshore Subclass 491 applications is reflected in these figures.

Subclass 491 visa — offshore:From approximately 1,200 in January to around 1,400 in August — with only a tiny number of offshore invitations, there has been virtually no processing.

Subclass 189 visa — onshore:From approximately 6,000 in January to 4,800 in August,a slow but steady reduction in the backlog.

Subclass 189 visa — offshore:From approximately 1,100 in January to under 830 in August.

Subclass 489 — onshore and offshorenumbers are not large in either case: onshore fell from 330 to under 200, and offshore from 370 to 205. To the last remaining cohort of Subclass 489 applicants — we truly appreciate your patience.

*Primary applicants only.

Onshore Subclass 190 visa applications in the backlog:1,054 have been waiting 3–6 months; 2,071 have been waiting 2–3 months; 1,598 have been waiting 1–2 months.

Offshore Subclass 190 visa applications in the backlog:838 have been waiting 18–24 months; 628 have been waiting 12–18 months; 290 have been waiting over 24 months — the difference between onshore and offshore waiting times is stark.

Onshore Subclass 491 visa applications in the backlog:1,436 have been waiting 2–3 months, and 1,687 have been waiting 3–6 months — while those who lodged in the first half of 2020, among the earliest Subclass 491 lodgers, appear to have been completely overlooked,specifically those 1,033 applicants waiting 12–18 months, who sit in a gap between earlier and later lodgers. 

Onshore Subclass 189 visa applications in the backlog:1,009 have been waiting 9–12 months; 1,125 have been waiting 12–18 months — the bulk of the backlog sits within these two waiting-time bands.

Offshore Subclass 489 visa applications in the backlog:994 have been waiting 18–24 months; 437 have a waiting period of 437 — the onshore backlog is nearly cleared, but offshore Subclass 489 applicants have truly waited far too long.

As all applicants waiting know, during these two years of the pandemic, the Department has been prioritising so-called pandemic-critical occupations, so even within the same visa subclass and the same lodgement window, wait times can vary significantly by occupation —taking the Subclass 190 as an example — the subclass with the most grants — let’s look at which occupations received the most grants between January and August 2021,with the pattern for the 189 and 491 being broadly similar.

Onshore (primary applicants only) —

Accounting809 grants,Civil Engineering223 grants,Electronics Engineering101 grants,Mechanical Engineering201 grants,ET107 grants,261111125 grants,261312430 grants,261313565 grants,Social Work175 grants,chef190 grants — all other occupations with three-figure grant counts are in the healthcare and nursing field.

Offshore (primary applicants only) —
Mostly figures of <5 or blank — but if forced to highlight any,

Accounting 22, OT252411 14, Head Chef 11, Cook 13, 261313 10, Registered Nurse 20…