Processing 4.3 Million Visa Applications

Before Christmas, the Minister for Home Affairs brought encouraging news: as 2022 drew to a close, the Department had successfully met its target of reducing the visa backlog to 600,000 — clearing nearly 400,000 applications since Labor came to power.

It is worth noting that the 400,000 figure refers only to pre-existing applications. New applications have continued to flow in steadily — and with international travel returning to normal and skilled migration surging back, new lodgements have increased substantially.

So how many visa applications did the Department actually process — well beyond that 400,000 figure?

A record-breaking 4.3 million visa applications processed!

Over the past seven months, the Department processed a total of 4.3 million visa applications, including2.2 million visitor visas, 370,000 student visas, and 64,000 temporary skilled visas (primarily Subclass 482 / Skills in Demand visas).

By the end of last year, the Department had hired an additional 400 staff to handle visa processing. As staffing levels grew, approval speeds rose sharply —in the most recent six-week period alone, 150,000 visas were processed, with more than 3,500 applications handled every day.

At this pace, the remaining backlog of 600,000 applications could be cleared by mid-year.

However, this is an optimistic projection

First, during this perioda large volume of new applications will continue to flow in，and the Department does not process applications strictly in lodgement order —so situations arise where applications pendingtwo to three years remain ungranted, while a Subclass 189 lodged in October 2022 is granted first — typically because it falls under a priority in-demand occupation.

Second, while skilled migration (both onshore and offshore) and parent migration have all seen some improvement in processing speed,the overall numbers are still dominated by temporary visa subclasses — Subclass 500, 600, 462, 485, and 408 — because permanent migration grants are capped by the annual migration programme allocation.

Migration expert Abul Rizvi has also analysed the data and acknowledged that the Department has made a genuine and visible effort to clear the backlog,with the number of onshore applicants waiting on bridging visas improving considerably — falling from a peak of 375,000 to 270,000.

However, there is a concern that this progress may simply meanmoving applicants from a “waiting for a grant” status to a “on a temporary visa” status。

Looking more closely at the data,the return of international students is also clearly evident — student visa applications increased by 40% compared to the same period in 2019,with 137,395 student visas lodged offshore in the five months to November 2022. With many universities resuming mandatory in-person attendance from 2023, even more students are expected to apply for visas to return for study.

How Should We Read These Results?

The Department’s headline numbers arelargely driven by temporary visa grants. After the health examination requirement was waived for most onshore temporary visas, many entered an effectively automatic, immediate-grant process. As we have noted previously, this has created some complications — a few applicants who did not withdraw their applications in time have had their PR aspirations overtaken by a temporary visa grant.

Setting aside the raw figures,the reality is that most permanent migration visa categories have seen meaningful improvement — not quite a daily torrent of grants,but a steady stream of grants and requests for further information. Recently there was even a run of Subclass 190 grants, and the Department concentrated resources on clearing a batch of Subclass 491 applications lodged in 2020 and the final batch of Subclass 489 applications from 2019.

However, some categories — such as Subclass 887 and certain investor migration streams — have clearly been left behind.

For the remaining backlog of 600,000 applications,the greatest hope is that the Department will prioritise those who have been waiting the longest and who are most in limbo.

Progress is progress — it is certainly better than none — and we hope the momentum continues.

Turning from visa processing tomigration reform — as the February publication date for the draft reform review draws nearer, a growing number ofmajor organisations have submitted policy papers。

Regional Australia Institute(RAI）

The RAI’s primary role is to conduct ongoing research and advocacy on regional Australia. Of course,the “regional” areas the RAI refers to are somewhat narrower than the migration definition — focusing primarily on towns and rural areas.

In this submission, the RAI continues to focus on the imbalance in development between cities and regional areas, stressing that the federal government needs to ensure sufficient overseas migrants settle in non-metropolitan regions. The 2022 population report released last week notes thatonly 17% of net overseas migration flows to regional Australia.

For example, in Victoria:

Projections show that only around 7,000 migrants per year will settle in regional Victoria over the next four years, compared to 70,000 heading to Melbourne. By 2032–33, without net overseas migration to offset declining birth rates, Victoria’s regional population will begin to decline.

RAI Chief EconomistDr Houghton has stated that over recent years, overseas inflows have become critically important to regional communities — whether migrants or backpackers.

The RAI has previously proposed a range of targeted measures, including establishing mechanisms to raise awareness of regional Australia among capital-city migrants, providing settlement support for newly arrived migrants in regional areas, and setting a regional population target of 11 million for Australia by 2032.

Regional Migration: A Persistent Challenge

Regional population is a complex and long-standing challenge for Australia. Development is deeply uneven across the country — not only between regional and metropolitan areas, but also among the capital cities themselves, where Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane clearly outperform other cities across transport, lifestyle, entertainment, and employment.If regional infrastructure and services fail to keep pace, new migrants may settle briefly to obtain their visa, then leave once it is granted — a pattern that has been playing out for years. Ultimately, people migrate for a better life.

The previous Coalition government did have policies and strategies in place.The Subclass 491 had a moment in the spotlight before being sidelined — there are still applicants who lodged over two years ago without a decision, and the Subclass 191, opened for applications last November, seems to have been almost entirely forgotten.This track record only erodes the confidence of prospective applicants — particularly when direct-to-PR pathways like Subclass 189 and 190 offer a far more straightforward route…

The Australia China Business Council（ACBC）

The Australia China Business Council (ACBC) has also submitted a policy paper,urging the Labor government to retain the AUD$5 million investor migration programme, following Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil’s public criticism of the programme and implicit suggestion that abolition remained a possibility.

The ACBC argued that retaining the AUD$5 million investor programme is designed to“drive innovation and contribute to Australian industries by attracting investors seeking permanent residency.”

The ACBC also cited data showing that a AUD$5 million investmentcan generate AUD$250,000 to AUD$350,000 in taxable income per year,with many investors committing well above AUD$5 million, keeping capital in Australia “as part of a generational wealth strategy”.

Given the genuine contribution, an outright abolition is unnecessary — raising the bar on requirements would be a more proportionate response, for example by increasing the minimum stay requirement from 40 days per year to 60 days.

Migration expert Abul Rizvi, commenting on the AUD$5 million investor category, noted that setting aside the question of whether the visa should exist at all, “if we are in the business of selling visas,this visa is actually very cheap for this cohort.”

What the Employer Peak Bodies Say

Business Council of Australiaput forward a notably innovative proposal this week, calling forthe permanent migration quota to be set as “a percentage of Australia’s total population”, with estimates provided four years in advance — a mechanism that would build in predictability and increase expected intake.

As for the $53,900 salary threshold, even if it is to be raised,the Business Council argued it should not exceed $65,000.

The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group)stated that even if adjusted for the wage price index since 2013, a rise to$63,000 would already represent a significant increase, making it even harder to recruit in manytrade and technical occupations that are already facing acute shortages.

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry also released its submission today, stating that the threshold should only be raised modestly — with “modest” defined as$60000。

The major review has at least provided all stakeholders with an opportunity to advocate for the communities they represent. Ultimately, the direction and detail of any reforms will come down to what the government prioritises most. The preliminary report, due to be submitted in February, is one we are keenly looking forward to.

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