The overall approval trend for skilled migration to Australia has been improving, raising expectations of quick visa grants. However, once you join the queue, you soon discover that the reality is not quite as optimistic as the official figures suggest — the picture varies considerably across visa subclasses and occupations.

Today we continue sharingvisa data obtained directly from the Department of Home Affairs, focusing on Subclass 189, 190, 491, 489, and 887.

Subclass 189 Backlog Surging — Other Subclasses Mostly Stable

End-of-month backlog figures, July to November

189The Subclass 189 backlog grew from under 13,000 at end of July to nearly 32,000 by end of November,a surge of 147%.

Despite also receiving a steady stream of new applications,190 and 491Subclass 190 and 491 have grown, but only modestly — monthly processing roughly keeps pace with new lodgements. Admittedly, Subclass 189 also includes New Zealand stream applications, but it is clear that overall grant speeds are not that quick — fast processing is limited to a handful of occupations.

The more closely watched887Subclass 887 presents a mixed picture — on one hand, the backlog is relatively stable and even edged down slightly from end of October to end of November; on the other hand, 19,000 applications is still a very large number, making that “stability” all the more frustrating. As a side note,191Subclass 191 grants have started to come through,and we are seeing approvals for applications lodged from late November to early December.

489，Subclass 489 took a very long time, but finally dropped below 3,100 — no small feat.

Subclass 190 Still Fastest — 189 and 491 Onshore/Offshore Speeds Now Similar

Since Labor took office,the only moment that truly deserved to be called a “grant shower” for skilled migration was the wave of190mass Subclass 190 approvals in November, which is clearly reflected in the data. Unfortunately, that shower did not extend to other subclasses, and it did not last. Onshore grants continue to outnumber offshore ones.

491 Subclass 491 grants also increased in November, with onshore and offshore numbers drawing close,partly because Subclass 491 requirements and invitations tend to be more accessible to offshore applicants.

189 Subclass 189 approvals are also rising, and we can see thatSubclass 189 has been helping a significant number of offshore applicants secure their residency.

887 and 489can only be compared against themselves, but there has been some improvement.

The previously dedicatedregional Australia research body, Regional Australia Institute（RAI）reported thataccording to the 2022populationreport,only 17% of net overseas migration was directed to regional areas，and they are calling onthe federal government to pushthat figure up to 40%, citing the familiar reasons of regional job vacancies and skills shortagesand the like.

However, data obtained by SBS shows that491+887+489, the three main subclasses designed to helpregional areasattract migrants, are processing at a painfully slow pace, with enormous backlogs and an absurdly high number of applications that have been waiting for an unreasonably long time.

The implication is clear: rather than spending energy on ambitious targets,the government would do better to simply grant visas faster — making these pathways genuinely attractive。

As at 31 December 2022 (more recent than the data cited above), the three main regional subclasses had a combined backlog of 52,428 applications.Among these, 3,096 are489，Subclass 489 applications. Since Subclass 489 was replaced by Subclass 491 at the end of 2019, even the most recently lodged applications have now been waiting more than three years. Those three to four thousand cases simply cannot be finalised — it is unclear why processing is so difficult.

At the same time,the two-step Subclass 491 pathway is even slower to deliver grants than the direct Subclass 189/190 routes，, which is deeply demoralising for applicants. The wait was always expected, but federal processing times have made that wait increasingly unpredictable, driving away potential applicants.

There is not much more to analyse — this is simply the current state of affairs. The key is getting the federal government to genuinely take notice. Here’s hoping everyone gets their grant in 2023!

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