Today we obtained the Department of Home Affairs’ internal communication email about the Subclass 189 invitation rounds for FY22-23(with special thanks to Michael for sharing).

First, it settles a question everyone has been asking: will Subclass 189 invitations still be issued for the rest of this financial year?

Yes, they will. But the numbers in the second half won’t be as large.

The document shows the internal communication took place in late November 2022. Some may worry that, when it said invitations would be issued again in the second half, it hadn’t accounted for the 35,000-strong December round?

The answer is: it had.

*The figures below mainly cover points-tested Subclass 189, plus a small number of family-sponsored Subclass 491

Detailed arrangements for each round already issued

December 2022 round

Although the 35,000-invitation December mega-release hadn’t yet happened at the time of the communication, a detailed plan had already been set out, clearly stating that the December round would total around 35,000, along with a very detailed allocation plan — so the actual outcome was almost certainly close to it.

About 6,100 for health and education related occupations

15,960 for engineering and information technology related occupations

3,500 given to accounting occupations

9,440 of the remainder distributed to other occupations

Round of 14 October 2022 (this round effectively topped up popular onshore occupations such as accounting)

Issued 297 invitations — 19 offshore and 278 onshore

Round of 6 October 2022

Issued 12,532 — 9,017 offshore and 3,515 onshore

The main target occupations were in the engineering, health and education sectors

Round of 22 August 2022

Issued 12,532 — 9,017 offshore and 3,515 onshore

The main target occupations were in the health and education sectors

The acceptance rate for the first three Subclass 189 rounds was only 30%-40%

They said the Subclass 189 acceptance rate (lodging a visa application within 60 days of an invitation) has fallen since the pandemic began, and the figure now (late November 2022) sits at roughly 30-40%.

The reasons may be that the applicant’s English or skills assessment had expired, or that the same applicant lodged several identical EOIs.

*A reminder: if your skills assessment had expired at the time of invitation, the Department now accepts a fresh one, as long as you can provide it within the 60 days for lodging the visa.

How occupations are selected for each round

The document states that every round invites onshore and offshore health and education related occupations, with onshore and offshore applicants in other occupations selected by score (future rounds will work the same way), but suitable caps will be placed on some popular occupations.

As for what counts as ‘suitable’, the document doesn’t spell it out. But it did confirm that, within the same Subclass 189 occupation, it comes down to your score.

As at 23 November 2022,

the Department saw 72,451 Subclass 189 EOIs

Accounting occupations (2211) (onshore and offshore combined)

11,135 EOIs in total

3,161 at 90 points or above

1,914 at 95 points or above

Engineering and ICT occupations (onshore and offshore combined)

45,777 EOIs in total, of whichnearly 20,000 are engineering occupations and nearly 26,000 are ICT occupations.

For ICT occupations, the 75/80/85/90-point bands are very crowded

16,115 at 80 points or above

11,525 at 85 points or above

7,459 at 90 points or above

2,303 at 95 points or above

For engineering occupations, more people are concentrated in the 70/75/80/85-point bands

9,846 at 80 points or above

6,624 at 85 points or above

3,513 at 90 points or above

1,090 at 95 points or above

Other occupations

-mostly in the lower 65-75 point band

-a fair share of these are likely trades occupations

-onshore numbers are still considerably higher than offshore

Teaching and Health occupations (onshore and offshore combined)

One slight pity is that this backlog figure predates the December mega-release, and after the rain of 35,000 invitations, the backlog across the major occupation groups should have changed noticeably. The document also notes that it believes the earliest rounds will attract more new lodgements.

Newstarsec’s analysis (not a prediction)

The very start of the document spells out why points-tested Subclass 189 invitations suddenly sprang back to life this financial year — it comes down to one word: demand.

One source of demand is the need to fill the 32,100 Subclass 189 grant places.At the end of last financial year, the Subclass 189 application backlog was only 13,000, so how do you fill more than 32,000 places? By issuing new invitations. In the second half this need has eased considerably, because as at the end of January 2023 the Subclass 189 application backlog had already exceeded 36,000. It’s also worth noting that applications invited or lodged this financial year can use next financial year’s places.

Another source of demand is filling vacant skilled positions.Post-pandemic Australia has been grappling with the problem of having no one available. After a period of various efforts, there is still a shortage, but it no longer seems as acute as before. The ABS reported that the unemployment rate for January 2023 rose to 3.7% — bear in mind it held at around 3.4-3.5% from the middle of last year through December. While the rise is small, it can be seen as the start of a shift.

If the Department sticks strictly to its earlier plan, there is still something to look forward to in the remaining four months of the second half — at least, not everyone’s hopes will be met. Put another way, if you’re mainly counting on Subclass 189, you may not see a mega-release of tens of thousands.

In addition, the document also notes that future rounds will give state governments advance notice, so it is the state governments adjusting around the federal action. NSW scrapping the score and work-experience requirements for all occupations the day after the December Subclass 189 round may well have been just such a timely, informed adjustment.

Of course, whoever adjusts and however they do it, more communication is surely a good thing — it at least reduces wasted invitations.

Picture an applicant who has lodged both a NSW Subclass 190 and a Subclass 189 EOI, whose two EOIs are invited back-to-back — with no time even to withdraw the other EOI — which for someone else simply means a wasted opportunity.

In short, even at the spring dawn of skilled migration, you can’t rely on a single plan or a single pathway — pair Subclass 189 with state nomination, or even employer sponsorship. Whichever path you take, a skills assessment and English are what most pathways require you to prepare first. Whether you’re onshore or offshore, get in touch with our consultants for an assessment and a plan!

Most state nomination programmes have plenty of places: Visa processing in February! The latest state-nomination quota usage, with NSW issuing 3,500 nominations in two months, plus an update on state-nomination processing!

Past articles

A bachelor’s in business but also after a 5-year Subclass 485? There’s a way!

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Studying a master’s in Australia is increasingly cost-effective — the diploma-to-master’s shortcut

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A wave of longer Subclass 485 visas is coming — what you need to know!

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