With the final state nomination quota figures still not out by the end of today, let’s look at two pieces of news directly tied to those quotas.

WA State NominationThe new financial year’s quota has been cut 70% from last year, with just 2,350 places allocated in total — Subclass 190 dropping from 5,350 to 1,500, and Subclass 491 from 2,790 to 850.

From requesting 10,000 places to the WA state nomination policy released last week, it’s clear Western Australia was gearing up for a big push in the 2023-24 financial year. A 70% cut would plainly hamstring the state government’s ability to attract skilled migrants through the state nomination programme.The WA Premier is therefore asking the Commonwealth to reconsider, hoping to lift the allocation. The Premier is also expected to raise the issue at this week’s jobs summit in Perth.

The other states may need to brace for a “shock” of their own. A few thoughts:

1. WA’s provisional quota hasn’t merely been reduced — it has been slashed.

Several factors determine a state’s nomination quota, but the starting point is how many the state government itself asks for. Because other factors come into play, the figure the Commonwealth approves won’t exactly match the state’s request, but as a rule the Commonwealth does its best to meet the state government’s request, meaning that if a state asks for a lot, what the Commonwealth actually grants — within its means — won’t be tiny. Put bluntly, state nomination is the programme that helps state governments find the skilled migrants they need and grow their population, so the Commonwealth naturally has to respect the state government’s position first.

On top of that, Western Australia is in a strong position, ranking as a large state both in international-student numbers and overall population.Yet despite WA signalling early that it wanted tens of thousands of places, it not only failed to get its wish and failed to match last year’s level — it ended up with far fewer than last year.

What I said above was “within its means” — and if the total quota planned across all state nomination programmes is itself very small, that is precisely one of those cases where the request exceeds what’s feasible.

2. Did other states “snatch” WA’s quota?

It’s true that the state nomination figures vary enormously from state to state. But there isn’t really any “snatching” going on — the Commonwealth still weighs the two big factors of the state government’s request and its size together. Some large states simply don’t want that many — Queensland last financial year, for instance — while others want more but are held back by their smaller size, such as Tasmania, Canberra and the Northern Territory, where no matter how proactive the state government is, the numbers will never catch up to NSW and Victoria.

So WA’s 70% cut may free up a little more room for other states within the overall allocation. But to claim it was caused by certain states staging a comeback to “forcibly grab” places seems unlikely, going by past experience.

Canberra issues a batch of EOI confirmations

This afternoon, several of our clients who had previously received pre-approval for Canberra state nomination (their documents had already been assessed by the state government) formally received their EOI confirmation — further proof that the state government has secured its state nomination quota for this financial year (at least part of it)

State governments generally receive their quotas all at once; it’s only because some state governments announce or start using theirs earlier that it feels as though some get theirs sooner and others later. As of this article’s publication on 21 August, the state quota figures had not yet been released. Taken together with WA’s “protest”, the situation may be this:

The quota figures gave the state governments a fright — at least for WA, which is making one last push.

This year’s quotas have been especially slow to arrive, most likely because too many were granted last year, putting too much strain on the back end of visa processing and grant allocations.On top of that, Australia’s unemployment rate has begun to rise, another sign that Australia’s demand for talent is starting to saturate.

Of course, from an applicant’s point of view, I hope the final quota figures, when released, prove every bit of the analysis above dead wrong.

From a planning perspective, we’d suggest keeping a close eye on employer-sponsored and GTI-type programmes; Subclass 189 is also unlikely to surge ahead. If you’d like to get in touch to plan ahead and learn more, add our consultant below.

Catch up on past articles

Civil engineering / QS and more can apply for WA Subclass 190 without a job offer! The NT’s MINT has used up its quota!

No study abroad, no jumping through hoops — many types of teachers overseas can migrate to Australia directly too!

A 60/65 average can get you into a Group of Eight master’s! GC and GD let you have it both ways!

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WA State Nomination Quota Provisionally Slashed 70%… Will the Other States Fare Any Better?

Civil engineering / QS and more can apply for WA Subclass 190 without a job offer! The NT’s MINT has used up its quota!

No study abroad, no jumping through hoops — many types of teachers overseas can migrate to Australia directly too!

A 60/65 average can get you into a Group of Eight master’s! GC and GD let you have it both ways!

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