Kirk Yan: Head of the Newstarsec Education & Migration Melbourne Division, registered Australian migration agent. Kirk has years of experience and in-depth expertise in interpreting migration policy and forecasting changes. He is the editor-in-chief of the Australian Migration Weekly and is affectionately known as “K-God” among students.
Nearly four months have passed in this financial year. Let’s review the allocation situation since Tasmania received its quota on 24 August (see Figure 2 & 3).
Weekly formal invitations for Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 are 13 and 9, with allocation rates of 2.11% and 1.56%.
Weekly unprocessed Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 applications are approximately 62 and 59 (including those with pre-invitations issued but state nomination not yet submitted).
Weekly new ROIs are approximately 70-100, of which 25-30 are Gold and Green applicants, accounting for over 30%.
Processing timeframe: 3-4 weeks.
Assuming a 90% invitation rate, with Gold & Green adding approximately 13 new applicants weekly each, based on the current allocation rate (see Figure 4):
Subclass 190 quota allocations will continue until late March next year, and Subclass 491 quota allocations until late April. If allocations are paused for three weeks over the New Year & Easter holidays, Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 quotas won’t be fully allocated until April and May next year respectively.
Approximately 24 Subclass 190 places will be allocated to Orange applicants, while all Subclass 491 invitations will go to Gold & Green applicants.
How should those still battling for state nomination in Tasmania approach this tough fight?
Green & Gold (G&G) Applicants
Submit your EOI & ROI as soon as you meet the requirements — receiving an invitation is fairly secure.
Non-G&G Applicants with one or more years of full-time work experience (either within Australia or overseas): if you have an employer willing to sponsor you (note: the sponsoring employer can be based in another state), it’s worth considering employer-sponsored pathways (Subclass 407 Training Visa as a transitional option, or Subclass 482 / Subclass 186 DE). Processing times are relatively fast, making this a solid Plan B for those eligible for employer sponsorship.
Non-G&G Applicants with no prior work experience:
For certain occupations, check whether other states have suitable windows — for example, construction-related occupations could try Western Australia, high-scoring IT applicants may have a shot at Victoria, and those with sufficient budget and visa duration who are willing to accept a Subclass 491 could consider Queensland’s small business stream.
If no better options are available, we recommend staying in Tasmania. This financial year, the federal government allocated most of its quota to processing in-hand visa applications, resulting in state nomination quotas being cut by 70-80%. Next financial year is unlikely to have fewer places than this year. The number of Tasmania applicants is also declining year on year, and invitations are essentially not being issued to overseas or interstate applicants. If an invitation is unlikely this financial year, we suggest waiting patiently for the next one — every cloud has a silver lining.
This has been a tough financial year for skilled migration applicants across all states, and Tasmania is no exception. Of course, if G & G applicant numbers come in lower than expected, more places will be available for Orange applicants. While working hard to find employment related to your Tasmanian qualification or skills assessment, it’s also worth exploring alternative pathways in parallel.
If you have any questions about Australian migration, feel free to add Kirk on WeChat for a consultation.
