Kirk Yan：Head of NewStars Education and Migration Melbourne branch, registered Australian migration agent, with years of experience and in-depth research in interpreting migration policy and forecasting changes. Editor-in-chief of the Australian Migration Weekly, affectionately known by students as Kirk.
I happened to see a Little Red Book user share data for 189, 190 and 491 up to August this year. Combined with the financial-year-end data to late June, here is my read on grant activity over these two months and the outlook for 189 invitations.
190: moving steadily
The 190 data is the most detailed. In the first two months of the financial year, new lodgements were not high, with fewer than 1,000 in each month. Before states received their allocations, most state governments basically did not issue invitations.
Across the two months, 5,524 grants were issued, a little over 2,700 per month. If the 30,400 allocation is averaged across 12 months, the expected monthly grant number is 2,533, so the actual number is not far off.
To expand slightly, allocations limit not only the total number but also the pace. I remember requesting grant data a long time ago and seeing that quarterly grants were roughly the total divided by four. In other words, case officers have a relatively fixed range for how many they can grant each quarter, month, or even week.
This means you cannot expect grants to pour out all at once. When the total allocation is not enough, a flood of grants early on would mean pain later.
For now, it is fairly balanced.
491
The 491 backlog was reduced by 5,134 over two months. That is steady progress, and it may also be because fewer 491 applications than 190 applications were lodged in the first two months of the financial year.
189
The 189 backlog reduction is the most optimistic of the three categories, falling to 23,288 by the end of August. Looking at the total, this financial year’s 189 allocation should be enough to clear the backlog remaining at the end of last financial year, with some surplus.
In practice, the case officer team has not been idle and has been working hard. Looking only at the backlog, there is reason to expect 189 invitations. Some people attending a Queensland information session also mentioned that Home Affairs may issue a round of 189 invitations in the next two months. Although the rumours mainly mention teachers, social workers, doctors and nurses, other occupations can still hold a little hope, because many of these four priority occupations have also been picked up by state nomination. Of course, if those priority occupation applicants have already been invited by state nomination for 190, we hope they withdraw their 189 EOIs and leave more opportunity for others.
The three major categories now seem to have grant waves every Wednesday.
There are scattered light showers on Tuesdays and Thursdays, while Mondays and Fridays are mostly further-information requests.
190 is broadly processing September to December 2022, and our grants this week were all applications lodged in early November.
491 is generally processing applications lodged in the second half of 2022, with a wide spread.
189 general occupations are still processing the batch invited in December, while priority occupations have basically cleared June 2023 lodgements and are moving towards July.
As always, wishing every applicant an invitation and a grant soon!
If you have any questions about Australian migration, you can add Kirk on WeChat directly for advice
