Key Migration News of the Week

1. Can we still expect 189 invitations this year? Data estimates another 3-5k possible?

2. Points-test reform consultation papers released: which scoring items are unanimously agreed to be changed

3. 190 and 491 visa backlogs further reduced

4. DoHA official update: 189/190/Partner PR processing speeds up

5. Weekly roundup of grants, invitations and skills assessments

There has been plenty of 189 news over the past few days, mainly from the Department of Home Affairs’ internal communications about the second-round arrangements. We will combine this with the 189 visa backlog data obtained via FOI up to end of December, and walk through it together.

1. This financial year’s second round of invitations uses the [occupation invitation calculation method] we introduced previously

2.The third round is expected to be a smaller round, because after the second round the invitation count is close to the quota (at the time the actual likely lodgement count was not clearly known)

3.The third round won’t necessarily be in February. The Department of Home Affairs will monitor the 189 visa backlog in real time, to decide when to issue invitations, and a pre-announcement is expected first

So let’s look at the latest 189 visa application backlog figures:

End of Decemberthe backlog was 12,832 and 9,161 places remained in quota. The gap is 3,671. Based on the roughly 7,000 189 backlog the Department has been “willing” to carry at the end of the past two financial years,there are still 3,329 visa places available. Factoring in a 50-55% invitation acceptance rate, 189 will most likely see another round, and a cautiously optimistic estimate is 3,000-5,000 invitations.

Taking a midpoint of 4,000,and using the proportions from the November round (also FOI data),we model the top-ten occupation invitation counts for the new round,Of course, whether the new round features the same top-ten occupations is something the Department can adjust at any time.

Current 189 visa processing status:

1,720 grants in December,slightly up from November, and broadly processed in lodgement order.24 12 is almost cleared,25 8 remains the main battleground this round. We have seen recent grants for multiple clients who lodged in August/September,11 processing has begun.

2. Points-test reform consultation papers released: which scoring items are unanimously agreed to be changed?

At the end of January the Department of Home Affairs released more than 200 external submissions on the points-test reform, from large institutions such as universities, skills-assessing authorities, state governments, industry bodies and think tanks, as well as many individual submissions.We have reviewed the full submissions of several representative institutions, summarised as follows:

– Age points: agree to move to a tiered model; oppose an excessive push towards ever-younger migrants

– Partner points: add qualification points; Australian qualifications rewarded

– English points:raise the threshold — the current four 6s is considered too low. Higher language ability may attract more additional points

– Qualification points: refine the scoring; diploma/certificate also earn points; no extra points for STEM; multiple qualifications can earn points

– Work-experience points: reduce the years required; overseas and onshore experience moving towards parity

– Current-employment points: additional points available; do not support job-offer-based points, and oppose a purely “high-salary-is-king” model

– Skills recognition: certificates and licences should also attract points

– Occupation lists: widely criticised, with significant disagreement on how to revise

– Regional points: move to a tiered system, with more remote areas earning more points

– NAATI points: some support removing them

– PY points: skills-assessing authorities strongly support retention; other bodies ambivalent

– A proper transition and buffer period is essential

A detailed comparison of several institutions can be seen in the image below

Of course, none of the above suggestions will necessarily be adopted by the government, or adopted exactly as submitted —but from the emerging consensus we can get a sense of the direction of reform, and confirm that the points-test overhaul has entered its public-release stage.

3. 190 and 491 visa backlogs further reduced

We have also obtained the 190 and 491 visa data for the first half of the financial year

As state nominations gradually rolled out invitations in November and December,190 new lodgements rose by 788 and 491 lodgements by 167. The second half of the financial year will see faster and larger increases.

190 grants fell slightly to under 2,700,491 dropped sharply to 1,000, but grants overall still exceed lodgements.As at end of December the 190 backlog was just over 25,000 and the 491 backlog under 22,000

190 and 491 grants continue to come through every month.190Apart from 24 10 reaching 525, the others have been in the tens to just over a hundred.

4. DoHA official update: 190 and Partner PR grants accelerate

The Department of Home Affairs has finally released its first 2026 update to visa processing times, with 189, 190 and Partner PR stages all speeding up.

189 50% in 3 months, 7 months faster; 90% in 12 months, 1 month slower

190 50% in 15 months, 2 months faster; 90% in 25 months, 2 months faster

491 50% in 21 months, unchanged from the last update; 90% in 29 months, 1 month slower