We now have the data up to the end of 12189 190 491, the half-year report card across the three main skilled-visa categories. Combined with the news of the past few days, here is my read on the next round of Subclass 189 invitations.
Summary first
– Subclass 189 may still issue another 3,000–5,000 invitations
– Top 10 occupations invited in the 189 November round this financial year
– 189 grants have progressed into November 2025
– 190 and 491 grants now spread broadly across months
Our consolidated data
Source data
Subclass 189 — another 3,000 to 5,000 invitations still likely?
There has been a steady stream of 189-related news over the past few days, mostly from Department of Home Affairs internal communications about the arrangements for the second round
2. After the second round is issued, the total invitation count is expected to approach the ceiling; at that point the Department said the third round would be a “smaller round”（, because the actual number of lodgements was not yet clearly known）
3. The Department monitors the 189 application backlog in real time to decide when to issue invitations. Rounds are not necessarily quarterly, so the next round may not fall in February as originally expected; a preview announcement is expected before invitations are released
So let’s take a look at the 189 application backlog
12189 primary-applicant lodgements totalled 2352; plus 11 in 2552, 11189 acceptance rate has for the moment stayed below 50%; combined with 1 partial data, it is expected to land in the 50–55% range
Grant volume has edged up to 1720。
12 month-end backlog is 12832; remaining ceiling is 9161, gap is 3671. If the Department follows its pattern of the past two financial years — “willingly” leaving roughly 7000189 backlog at year-end, that still leaves 3329 visa places available; applying a 50–55% invitation-acceptance rate, 189one more round should still be possible — a cautiously optimistic estimate of 3,000–5,000 invitations.
Subclass 189 grants are broadly processed in lodgement order; 2412 is nearly cleared, 258 is close to finished, 11 has begun to kick off.
Separately, FOI also provides the 11 monthly 189top-10 invited occupations.
This is a simulation from a few days before the round was issued; the actual numbers invited may differ slightly.
Registered Nurses sit in first place by a clear margin, accounting for nearly one-third, Carpenters have jumped to second place, Early Childhood Teachers400+ — the invitation volume is a drop in the ocean next to their backlog — Chemical and Materials Engineers follow closely behind, then Solicitors，Actuaries and Statisticians also appear in the top 10; for other occupations, leave a comment at the end of this article.
As noted above, we estimate the next round at 3,000–5,000 invitations; assuming a midpoint of 4,000, and applying the proportions from the November round, we can simulate the invitation counts for the top 10 occupations in the new round. The other occupations would then share just over 1,000 places — though of course whether the new round keeps the same top 10 is something the Department can adjust at any time.
Subclass 190 and 491 — steady, orderly clearing of the backlog
190 new lodgements rose by 788, 491 rose by 167. State-nomination invitations began rolling out progressively through November and December, so an uptick in new lodgements was expected, and more is likely in the second half of the financial year.
190 grants have dipped slightly to just under 2700, 491 has fallen sharply to 1000, but grants still outnumber lodgements overall.As at end-December, the 190 backlog sits just above 25,000 and the 491 backlog just below 22,000.
190 and 491 grants continue to come through every month.190Apart from 2410, where it hit 525, every other month saw just tens to just over a hundred.
491 is a little more concentrated: 236 through 245 saw progress every month, 246 through 252 was all but skipped again, whereas 256 saw 214 grants. State-nominated grant timing now genuinely comes down to a bit of luck.
A third Subclass 189 round is still worth hoping for, so it pays to get yourself ready:make sure your skills assessment is within its validity period, especially if you have lodged under more than one occupation, and check each points-earning element is still valid and still meets the requirements — for example:
1. Regional-study points — was the entire course taken in a regional area, and were any units taken online during that period?
2. Is your relationship evidence complete?
3. Are the dates and nature of your work experience fully supported by documentation?
If anything is uncertain, please contact us to check — do not waste an invitation for nothing.
(photographed in 2021)
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