快讯：政府透露其预计净海外移民（NOM）的细节

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快讯：政府透露其预计净海外移民（NOM）的细节

The Government has at last revealed some details of its 2019 Budget forecast for a record breaking level of sustained NOM. The key is a significant increase in the net contribution from temporary visa holders. This would mean the current stock of around 2 million temporary entrants in our population must rise even more rapidly. Are we on the way to transitioning from a migrant settler nation to a guest worker society? But if there is a shortfall in forecast NOM, what would be the implications for the Prime Minister’s job creation pledge and for its ten year tax plan?

政府终于披露了其2019年预算预测的一些细节，该文件显示，其NOM的水平以达到创纪录的状态，既临时签证持有人的数量显着增加。因此，如果预测NOM出现短缺，那么对总理的创造就业承诺及其十年税收的计划将会有什么影响？

以下为数据资料

Table 1: Net Overseas Migration (NOM)

	2018 NOM Arrivals	2018 NOM Departures	2018 NOM	2019 Forecast NOM Arrivals	2019 Forecast NOM Departures	2019 Forecast NOM
Overseas Students	168,080	58,780	109.320	175,600	59,600	116,000
Skilled Temporary	28,630	14,930	13,690	33,200	15,400	17,800
Visitor	75,800	14,990	60,810	82,700	16,300	66,400
Working Holiday	49,640	23,190	26,450	51,800	24,900	26,900
Other Temporary	13,940	31,270	-17,320	15,800	31,500	-15,700
Total Temporary	336,100	143,160	192,940	359,100	147,700	211,400
Total Permanent	84,630	20,960	63,680	87,900	21,400	66,500
Aust Citizens, NZ Citizens, Other	109,340	117,520	-8,160	111,300	117,500	-6,200
Total	530,080	281,630	248,440	558,200	286,600	271,600

Conclusion

Unless the Australian economy strengthens in 2019-20, and assuming no other policy changes, the Home Affairs forecast for NOM is likely to be substantially on the high side. That would make delivery of the Prime Minister’s job creation pledge very difficult to achieve. If the Australian economy and labour market weaken significantly, NOM could fall like a stone making the jobs pledge impossible.

除非澳大利亚经济在2019 – 2020年增强，并且假设没有其他政策变化，否则内政部对NOM的预测可能会大幅上升。这将使总理的就业创造承诺很难实现。如果澳大利亚经济和劳动力市场显着减弱，那么NOM可能会像石头一样堕落，无法实现就业承诺。

Abul Rizvi was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including in particular the reshaping of Australia’s intake to focus on skilled migration. He is currently doing a PhD on Australia’s immigration policies.

20世纪90年代初至2007年担任副局长时，Abul Rizvi是移民局的高级官员。他获得了公共服务奖章和百年奖章，用于制定和实施移民政策，特别是重新调整澳大利亚的注册力量以专注于技术移民。他目前正在攻读澳大利亚的移民政策博士学位。

 

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