The Government has at last revealed some details of its 2019 Budget forecast for a record breaking level of sustained NOM. The key is a significant increase in the net contribution from temporary visa holders. This would mean the current stock of around 2 million temporary entrants in our population must rise even more rapidly. Are we on the way to transitioning from a migrant settler nation to a guest worker society? But if there is a shortfall in forecast NOM, what would be the implications for the Prime Minister’s job creation pledge and for its ten year tax plan?

Conclusion

Unless the Australian economy strengthens in 2019-20, and assuming no other policy changes, the Home Affairs forecast for NOM is likely to be substantially on the high side. That would make delivery of the Prime Minister’s job creation pledge very difficult to achieve. If the Australian economy and labour market weaken significantly, NOM could fall like a stone making the jobs pledge impossible.

Abul Rizvi was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including in particular the reshaping of Australia’s intake to focus on skilled migration. He is currently doing a PhD on Australia’s immigration policies.

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